March Madness bracket picks: 5 Cinderellas to take a risk on in the 2026 NCAA tournament

Choosing an NCAA Tournament Cinderella is a scary proposition in any March. It’s especially daunting when you’re coming off of a 2025 tournament where the 13-16 seeds went a combined 0-16 in the first round.

Still, there are a handful of double-digit seeds from mid-major conferences that are worth giving a significant look before you make your bracket predictions final. Here are five:

No. 11 South Florida

America’s favorite 11-seed early on this week does not seem to be previously undefeated darling Miami University. Instead, it’s American Conference champion South Florida that seems to be receiving the heaviest backing from the sports public.

There are ample reasons to backup the public’s belief in the Bulls.

For starters, they’re one of the hottest teams in the country. They’ve won 11 straight games, the third longest-winning streak in the sport, and they’ve been beaten just once since Jan. 18.

Second, they have one of the brightest young coaching stars in the sport in Bryan Hodgson. The 38-year-old former Nate Oats assistant won 20+ games in his first two seasons at Aransas State before jumping at the opportunity to rediscover the momentum the Bulls had before the untimely passing of Amir Abdur-Rahim in October of 2024.

Third, they have one of the best mid-major players in the country in Izaiyah Nelson. The 6’10 senior forward followed Hodgson from Arkansas State to USF and has been a superstar for the Bulls this season, nearly averaging a double-double at 15.7 points and 9.6 rebounds per game. He could play for any team in the country.

Lastly, they’ve got all the requisite storylines necessary for America to fall in love with them.

In addition to the potential Abdur-Rahim storyline, you have a head coach from the Buffalo area who gets to coach his first NCAA Tournament game in Buffalo. That game will also be the first time that Hodgson’s father, who lives in the Buffalo area and is battling dementia, will have seen Bryan work the sidelines as a head coach.

All the elements are there.

No. 11 VCU

If you’re rolling your eyes at this one, I get it.

The Atlantic 10 isn’t really a mid-major conference, and VCU doesn’t really feel like a mid-major program.

If you’re criteria for “Cinderella” status is any double-digit seed from a non-power league, though, then go ahead and hop on the Ram bandwagon (BandRamgon? We’ll revisit it if they win in the first round).

Guards carrying teams in March is an old of an adage as “Cinderella” itself, and VCU has two of the better ones in this tournament. Terrence Hill Jr. is a classic “this is a big moment, go and get a bucket” scoring guard, while Brandon Jennings is one of the better defensive guards in this tournament.

The first round matchup with North Carolina is the rare situation where the “little guy” might have better guards than the “big guy.” Where VCU would not have had an answer for the Tar Heels would have been with likely top five NBA Draft pick Caleb Wilson. With Wilson sidelined for the remainder of the season, they don’t have to worry about that.

It would not be a shock at all to see VCU both beat North Carolina in round one and then turn around and push Illinois to the limit in round two.

No. 12 Akron

John Groce has the Zips in the field for the third straight year and the fourth time in the last five. The question every Akron fan is asking is whether or not this is the year the Zips — who are 0-7 all-time in the Big Dance — can finally spring an upset.

Akron came close to knocking off UCLA in 2023, but has been beaten pretty handily in each of the last two years — a 17-point loss to Creighton in 2024 and a 28-point loss to Arizona 12 months ago. The are reasons to believe why this year could be different for the Zips.

This is the best offensive team that Groce has coached at Akron. The Zips rank eighth in the country in effective field goal percentage, 12th in two-point field goal percentage, and 14th in three-point field goal percentage. Starters Tavari Johnson, Shammah Scott and Bowen Hardman have all made more than 70 three-pointers this season, and starting center Amani Lyles shoots it at a better than 38 percent clip from deep.

The Zips, who are a 12-seed for the second time in program history, also get the benefit of drawing a Texas Tech team that enters the tournament having lost three straight games and is still adjusting to life without injured All-American J.T. Toppin.

No. 13 Hawaii

Yes, 13-16 seeds went 0-16 last season. And yes, statistically the gap between this year’s 4 and 13-seeds has never been wider. But what’s the fun in limiting potential Cinderellas to 10-12 seeds?

Hofstra is easily the strongest of the 13-seeds on paper, but highlight Hawaii for three reasons:

1) There’s some precedence here.

The last time the Rainbow Warriors were in the tournament, they upset California in a 13/4 first round matchup.

2) They play an extremely unique style.

Hawaii’s ultra-rare no-help defense has made the Rainbow Warriors one of the best defensive teams at the mid-major level and is the primary reasons they’re spending this week preparing for an NCAA Tournament game.

Playing this style against a point guard the caliber of Darius Acuff certainly seems like an error in judgment, but any time you go up against a philosophy you’ve not seen before in an actual game, there’s likely to be an adjustment period.

3) Single-digit seed John Calipari

John Calipari took Arkansas to the Sweet 16 in year one, but the Razorbacks were a 10-seed playing as an underdog in both of its tournament games. You can easily make the case that the main reason Calipari ended up in Fayetteville at all was his shocking first round losses to 15-seed Saint Peter’s and 14-seed Oakland.

Could that recent history repeat itself on Thursday?

No. 14 North Dakota State

Let’s get real wild.

You could make the case that North Dakota State is the most under-seeded team in the 13-16 range (although Siena has some legitimate qualms about being a 16 … and having to face the No. 1 overall seed in the tournament). The Bison are easily the most well-regarded 14-seed according to every predictive metric, and they rank 30 spots higher on KenPom than 13-seed Troy.

Two of the last three times that Michigan State has been a 3-seed, the Spartans have been ousted from the tournament by a double-digit seed. There’s also 2016 when Tom Izzo’s team was stunned by 15-seed Middle Tennessee State in one of the biggest first round upsets in March Madness history.

If there’s a monumental stunner on Thursday or Friday this year, NDSU over Michigan State feels like the safest bet.