Manchester City vs Newcastle United predictions and betting tips – Guardiola’s side to finish job

Manchester City’s 2-0 victory at St James’ Park in the first leg of this EFL Cup semi-final means they are in pole position to advance to the Wembley showpiece.

Newcastle United are struggling to get going in this domestic campaign, so a comeback victory on Wednesday would do them the world of good. Can they pull off something special?

• Pick Manchester City to win – 4/5 with Tote
• Choose Manchester City to score first – 4/7 with Sky Bet
• Go for Omar Marmoush to score any time – 5/3 with 247Bet

Manchester City vs Newcastle United predictions

When Arsenal lost to Manchester United the weekend before last, it was only natural that people would talk up the Premier League title race being back on.

Manchester City had just moved within four points of top spot and that was interpreted by many as an ominous sign for Arsenal.

The question on everyone’s lips seemed to be: will Mikel Arteta’s men succumb to the pressure and suffer another defeat against Leeds United?

The answer was no. And perhaps it was the wrong question anyway. Maybe we should have been asking if City would stumble instead.

That is exactly what happened, although no one saw it coming at half-time of their meeting with Tottenham Hotspur on Sunday.

Two goals to the good and cruising, it looked like being a comfortable afternoon from start to finish for Pep Guardiola’s men.

But Tottenham regrouped at the break and came on strong in the second period. After restoring parity at 2-2, they were the team pushing hardest for a winner.

With Arsenal having thumped Leeds 4-0 the day before, the gap between the top two now stands at six points.

Sunday was just another reminder that, while there has been significant scrutiny of Arsenal’s shortcomings, this City side is simply not as strong as most of its predecessors in the Guardiola era.

For one reason or another, they are not able to control games like they used to. There is a vulnerability to this City team and Tottenham were just the latest opponents to exploit it.

Still, Guardiola’s side remain in the title race for now and they are also well positioned to advance to the EFL Cup final this week.

A 2-0 triumph over Newcastle United in the first leg of this semi-final means City have one foot inside Wembley already.

Newcastle head into this match on the back of a crushing 4-1 loss to Liverpool on Saturday. That result left them in mid-table and dealt another blow to their top-five chances.

The EFL Cup holders will not give up their crown without a fight, but Eddie Howe and his staff know that Newcastle are huge underdogs to get through from here.

Howe’s side will still give as good as they have got at the Etihad Stadium, but the manager may now consider Saturday’s clash with Brentford as the more important game.

Quick Man City vs Newcastle betting stats

• The aggregate hurdle: Only one team in League Cup history has ever successfully reached the final after losing the first leg by two or more goals.
• City’s home fortress: Manchester City have won 14 of their 18 home matches this season and have won their last 11 consecutive home games against Newcastle.
• Second-half slump: In 2026, City have scored six goals in the first half without reply, but have also conceded six in the second half without scoring any.
• Semenyo’s hot streak: New signing Antoine Semenyo has scored in four of his first five games for City, including the opening goal in the first leg of this tie.
• Newcastle’s injury crisis: The Magpies travel without captain Bruno Guimarães and young star Lewis Miley, both ruled out through injury.
• Discipline on the line: Newcastle defender Dan Burn was booked in both league meetings against Liverpool this term and is a statistical favorite for an early card tonight.
• Clean sheet kings: Manchester City have kept a clean sheet in each of their last seven home matches against Newcastle across all competitions.

Manchester City vs Newcastle United predicted lineups

Manchester City vs Newcastle United betting tips

Manchester City host Newcastle United in the second leg of their EFL Cup semi-final.

Man City to win again

Manchester City have won just one of their last six Premier League fixtures, but they have enjoyed success in the Champions League, EFL Cup and FA Cup over the last few weeks.

Although the EFL Cup probably ranks bottom of their list of priorities for 2025/26, Guardiola would never turn his nose up at a piece of silverware.

With City in a fantastic position to reach another final, they will go all-out to finish the job against Newcastle United.

The Magpies are not out of this yet. An early goal on Wednesday would pile the pressure on their opponents.

But Newcastle’s away record is poor and we expect them to come unstuck against City for the second time in a matter of weeks.

Pick Manchester City to win at 4/5 with Tote

Hosts to strike first

As is their wont, Manchester City made a fast start against Tottenham Hotspur on Sunday.

No team in the Premier League has a better first-half record than City, who have been ahead at the interval in 16 out of 24 league games this term.

Meanwhile, Guardiola’s charges have scored the first goal on 19 occasions, another top-flight high.

City drew first blood in the first leg of this tie and they will probably do the same in the return fixture on Wednesday.

Choose Manchester City to score first at 4/7 with Sky Bet

Marmoush on scoresheet?

Erling Haaland’s form has dipped in 2026 and Guardiola may be tempted to give him the night off on Wednesday.

Even if the Norway international is deployed up front from the start, Omar Marmoush is likely to earn a spot elsewhere in the XI.

The Egypt international has not had much of a look-in this season due to injury, international duty and Guardiola preferring other options.

But Marmoush scored in the recent victory over Wolverhampton Wanderers and he will be a threat to the Newcastle United backline here.

Go for Omar Marmoush to score any time at 5/3 with 247Bet

Manchester City vs Newcastle United odds

Find the latest Manchester City vs Newcastle United betting odds here. All odds are provided by our recommended football bookmakers and are subject to change.

Where to watch Manchester City vs Newcastle United

• Location: Etihad Stadium, Manchester, England.
• Date and time: Wednesday 4th February, 8pm.
• How to watch: Sky Sports Main Event.

More EFL Cup predictions

We have plenty more EFL Cup predictions and picks – find our latest betting tips from expert punters in our match preview overview.

About the author

Greg Lea

Greg Lea is a freelance football writer from London. He predominantly covers the Premier League and has had work published by the Guardian, FourFourTwo, ESPN and others.

Follow Greg on X: @GregLeaFootball

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