Why St. John’s basketball is on upset alert in 2026 NCAA Tournament

March Madness expectations are higher than ever for St. John’s basketball. Head coach Rick Pitino has led the Red Storm to new heights with consecutive Big East titles. This St. John’s team looks like a strong contender to come out of the loaded East Regional.

But there’s a first order of business to take care of in the NCAA Tournament.

Northern Iowa is on deck first inside Viejas Arena in San Diego on Friday. The Panthers are an overwhelming underdog already with the line set for 10.5-points per FanDuel Sportsbook.

However, the Red Storm aren’t a lock just yet to move on to the second round. Here’s why an upset alert could still occur.

St. John’s biggest flaw could resurface

Pitino built his St. John’s teams to play fast, dominate inside and bottle foes on defense.

But nowhere does it say that the Red Storm can beat teams off the three-pointer.

That flaw surfaced in the horrendous loss to UConn 72-40 back on Feb. 25, as the Storm shot from 25% there. They still shot at the same percentage in the Big East Conference Championship. Except UConn delivered a way worse 16% from long range.

Still, the Panthers likely will force Pitino’s team to shoot from outside.

One more Northern Iowa advantage

The Red Storm will face a smothering defense.

Northern Iowa allows only 61 points per game, the best mark in the nation. Head coach Ben Jacobsen gets his unit forcing offenses to play from half-court. From there, Northern Iowa defenders throw their arms up and contest everything from passes to shot attempts.

Jacobsen’s scheme eliminates open looks including in the paint. Again, this scheme takes shape once the ball reaches half court.

Lastly, the Missouri Valley Conference champs force 11.9 turnovers a game and will aim to create takeaways.

Can St. John’s avoid the upset?

The Red Storm also must avoid history on their side.

Pitino runs a program that hasn’t surpassed the second round since 1990-91, when legendary head coach Lou Carnesecca led them to a regional final. St. John’s landed a past national title winner and New York native three years ago in Pitino. All with the intent of envisioning Big East championships and Final Four runs.

This tournament presents the perfect storm to do just that. The 73-year-old has more experience on his roster with Zuby Ejiofor returning and delivering career-highs across the board. From there Oziyah Sellers (USC and Stanford), Bryce Hopkins (Providence), Ian Jackson (North Carolina) and Dillon Mitchell (Texas and Cincinnati) all add interior muscle in the paint.

St. John’s must find a way to crack this Northern Iowa defense. Best case scenario is feed Ejiofor, Mitchell and Hopkins inside to take advantage of the Panthers’ lack of size. The Red Storm can blow this game away too by forcing the Panthers to shoot from three-land, as they’re inconsistent in their own right there.

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