Trevor Lawrence is red-hot, but Broncos defense is still poised to eat Jaguars alive in Week 16

One of the marquee matchups of Week 16 of the NFL season pits the Jacksonville Jaguars against the Denver Broncos. This battle of AFC contenders would have been a bit surprising earlier in the season, but the Jags and Broncos are now two of the hottest teams in football as the playoffs approach.

The Jaguars have won five consecutive games since an epic collapse against the Houston Texans to get to 10-4 on the season. Houston is right on Jacksonville’s tail in the standings, but Liam Coen and company still control their own destiny in the AFC South.

On the other side, the Broncos have won 11 games in a row and are coming off of arguably their most impressive performance of the year, a 34-26 win over the Green Bay Packers in Week 15. Denver is in control of the AFC West and the No. 1 seed in the conference at 12-2, and it can move one step closer to securing both of those honors with a win on Sunday.

Trevor Lawrence is one of the hottest quarterbacks in football and is coming off of arguably the best game of his career, recording 381 total yards and six touchdowns in a 48-20 win over the New York Jets. He will be put to the test on Sunday against a Broncos team that boasts one of the best defenses in the league. Can he keep the hot streak going on the road?

Jaguars don’t have a standout trait to fall on against Broncos defense

The Jaguars have put together five pretty good offensive performances in a row, but they have come against some shaky defenses with the exception of a 35-6 blowout of the Los Angeles Chargers. In the last four games, the Jags beat up on the Cardinals, Titans, Colts and Jets.

The season-long numbers don’t tell the whole story, but this Jags offense is still pretty average by most metrics. They rank No. 15 in EPA per pass, No. 13 in EPA per rush and No. 17 in rushing success rate according to Next Gen Stats.

That is bad news against a Broncos defense that excels in all areas. Denver currently ranks sixth in EPA per play allowed for the season. The Broncos have elite players at every level of the defense, and Nik Bonitto and Patrick Surtain II will be the two best players on the field when Denver is out there.

However, things have changed dramatically since Jakobi Meyers was traded to Jacksonville from the Las Vegas Raiders just before the trade deadline. Since then, Lawrence has been one of the best quarterbacks in football and the Jags have had one of the best offenses in the league. Meyers has been a big reason for that, leading the team in catches (27) and receiving yards (355) since making his debut in Week 10.

There is a chance that Surtain will follow Meyers similar to how he did with Brock Bowers a couple of weeks ago against the Raiders, but the Jaguars like to move their new addition all over the formation to give him different matchups in coverage.

When Lawrence isn’t finding Meyers over the middle, the Jaguars will have to find success with a resurgent Travis Etienne in the run game in order to make their mark on a very good Broncos defense.

Can Trevor Lawrence create explosive plays under pressure?

The Broncos have one of the best pass rush units in all of football, one that will almost certainly affect the game throughout Sunday afternoon’s contest. Even in Week 15, when the Broncos’ front had a relatively quiet first half against a Packers team that was humming, Bonitto and Jonathan Cooper took over in the second half and completely shut down the Green Bay attack when it needed to throw the ball to get back in the game.

Jacksonville has done a pretty good job of keeping Lawrence clean this season. He has faced pressure on just over 30% of his dropbacks, one of the best marks in the NFL. Part of that is because Coen has done a great job of keeping the offense on schedule, but the offensive line will be overmatched in this game from a talent perspective.

On the other side, the Broncos rank second in the NFL with a 40.5% pressure rate coming into this game, so Lawrence will have to face the heat on Sunday. When he has been pressured this season, the former No. 1 overall pick is launching the ball down the field and hunting explosive plays.

Lawrence’s average depth of target jumps up from 8.5 yards downfield when he is kept clean to an astounding 12.3 yards when he is under pressure, according to PFF. It isn’t uncommon for the number under pressure to be bigger, but it is rare for it to be that big of a gap. It’s clear that the Clemson product wants to push the ball downfield when opposing fronts are getting to him, and that could be the difference in this game.

The Jaguars have Brian Thomas Jr. on the outside, who is capable of creating an explosive play out of thin air. Meyers has also created a handful of chunk gains since he has been in Jacksonville. In a game where maintaining consistency down-to-down could be a struggle for the Jags, those big plays could be the difference between a win and a loss.

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