Sweet 16 picks and Final Four predictions for men’s March Madness regionals

The field of 68 is down to 16 teams in the 2026 men’s NCAA tournament. The opening weekend of March Madness had it all: buzzer-beaters that went in and barely missed, a No. 1 seed getting knocked out early, and a double-digit seed breaking into the Sweet 16 … even if no one could possibly consider the Texas Longhorns a Cinderella story.

Every team remaining in the field comes from one of the college basketball power conferences. The Big Ten has been the clear winner of March Madness so far after we identified it as the strongest league before Selection Sunday. Six Big Ten teams are still standing, and it’s possible three of the four Final Four teams could come from the conference. The Big East will hope its conference tournament championship game turns into an Elite Eight game in the East Regional between UConn and St. John’s.

Let’s make predictions for each regional on who will win the Sweet 16 games and ultimately advance to the Final Four.

East Regional

• No. 1 Duke vs. No. 5 St. John’s
• No. 2 UConn vs. No. 3 Michigan State

The East felt like the marquee regional when the bracket was announced, and it has played out in a dream fashion for the television networks. Duke is the most relevant brand in college basketball basketball, and they’re going against the home team for New York City right now, St. John’s, in Washington DC. Tom Izzo and Michigan State vs. two-time national champion Dan Hurley and UConn is another fantastic matchup.

Duke was my national championship pick, but there’s no doubt that a pair of key injuries have taken on a toll on the Blue Devils. Patrick Ngongba missed Duke’s too-close-for-comfort opener against No. 16 seed Siena, and played only 13 minutes in the win over TCU. Ngongba’s sore foot is the single biggest question in March Madness right now. He’ll be particularly important against St. John’s star Zuby Ejiofor, who feels like he’s playing the best ball of his life. Duke’s backcourt has done well to whether the injury to starting point guard Caleb Foster, and freshman Cayden Boozer will need to step up with a big game against Rick Pitino’s extended ball pressure on defense. I think the winner of this game goes to the Final Four. I’m tempted to pick St. John’s, but ultimately I’m still worried about their lack of shooting, and I don’t think Bryce Hopkins is hitting six threes again. Give me Cameron Boozer and Duke to the Elite Eight.

UConn vs. Michigan State feels evenly-matched at first blush. The Spartans are the more physical team, while UConn feels like it has higher-end shooting talent even if the numbers don’t back it up. Michigan State’s physicality should translate in two ways: dominating the glass, and getting more attempts at the foul line. Huskies center Tarris Reed has been on a tear early in the tournament, but one man can’t keep the Spartans off the glass. UConn needs Solo Ball and Braylon Mullins to rip the nets from deep, and I’m just not sure they can get clean looks against an Izzo defense. I like Michigan State to eek out a close victory.

A Duke vs. Michigan State Elite Eight game brings back memories of their 2019 matchup with Zion Williamson and RJ Barrett on the Blue Devils’ roster. Williamson was the best player in the country back then, just like Boozer is now. Somehow, MSU pulled off that upset with only one real NBA player in the rotation in Xavier Tillman. The biggest star of that team was junior point guard Cassius Winston, and MSU has their best point guard since Winston in junior Jeremy Fears Jr. Every sign points to Duke, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Spartans somehow win a close one.

Picks: Duke over St. John’s | Michigan State over UConn | Duke over Michigan State

Duke to the Final Four

South Regional

• No. 4 seed Nebraska vs. No. 9 seed Iowa
• No. 2 seed Houston vs. No. 3 seed Illinois

Nebraska vs. Iowa in the Sweet 16? How is this real life? The two teams split the season series with the home team winning both games. Iowa has won with offense this season while Nebraska has won with defense. The Cornhuskers take a ton of threes with 50.7 percent of their field goal attempts from deep (No. 12 in the country), and they’re also one of the sport’s best ball movement teams with assists coming on 65.4 percent of their made field goals (No. 6 in the country). The shooters will have to be hot to out-score Iowa, and I’m not convinced it will happen. The Hawkeyes just sliced and diced Florida from two-point range in the round of 32 against one of the country’s best front courts. Nebraska isn’t nearly as tough as the Gators are inside despite their lofty defensive ranking. I also don’t think superstar point guard Bennett Stirtz is shooting 0-for-9 from three again. I’ve been doubting Nebraska all year, and I’m not stopping now. Give me Iowa to the Elite Eight.

Houston vs. Illinois is the best game of the Sweet 16. The Illini have a super efficient offense with skilled size all over the lineup, but their toughness has been questioned. There’s no better way for Illinois to answer that question than by going against Houston, long considered the toughest program in college basketball. The surprising thing about their statistical profiles is Illinois actually has a pretty big rebounding advantage. The Illini’s raw size with the Ivisic twins is overwhelming, and if they both start draining threes, it’s game over. Illinois can struggle at times to deter paint touches and finishes at the rim, but Houston loves to settle for mid-range shots. Kylan Boswell feels like an excellent matchup defensively against Cougars star Kingston Flemings. I like Illinois to win by about 6-8 points.

Illinois vs. Iowa in the Elite Eight feels pretty lopsided. The Illini’s length is just too much this for Hawkeyes’ roster. I’ll pick Illinois by double-digits for the program’s first Final Four berth since Dee Brown and Deron Williams were on campus.

Picks: Iowa over Nebraska | Illinois over Houston | Illinois over Iowa

Illinois to the Final Four

Midwest Regional

• No. 1 seed Michigan vs. No. 4 seed Alabama
• No. 2 seed Iowa State vs. No. 6 seed Tennessee

How has Alabama made it this far without Aden Holloway? Nate Oats really might be the best coach in college basketball right now after reaching the second weekend for the fourth consecutive year. Oats is way overachieving this year, because his team doesn’t have enough size up front. That’s where Michigan shines, and that’s why this game will be a rout. The Wolverines’ front court is special with three future NBA first-round picks, and they’re going to pound Alabama into submission.

Iowa State vs. Tennessee will be a much closer game, especially in the likely scenario where Cyclones star Joshua Jefferson can’t go with an injured ankle. Iowa State is going to miss him on the defensive glass (where Jefferson ranks top-100 in the country), because Tennessee enters as No. 1 in offensive rebound rate. The Vols have to hammer ISU for o-boards, because I’m not sure they can score against this defense any other way. The battle at the three-point line will be fun to watch: Tennessee holds teams to a lowly 30.5 percent shooting from three on the season, while ISU makes 38.7 percent of their shots from deep (No. 11 in the country) and have the nation’s best shooter in junior wing Milan Momcilovic (49.3 percent from deep). Iowa State just has more ways to win, and it feels like Tennessee still has to turn every game into junkyard brawl. I like the Cyclones in a tight one.

Michigan vs. Iowa State would be fun if Jefferson was healthy. I can’t see the Cyclones beating the Wolverines without him at close to 100 percent. ISU hasn’t made an Elite Eight since 1999-2000 despite this being their fifth Sweet 16 appearance since then. Michigan is just a level above Iowa State, and almost every other team.

Picks: Michigan over Alabama | Iowa State over Tennessee | Michigan over Iowa State

Michigan to the Final Four

West Regional

• No. 1 seed Arizona vs. No. 4 seed Arkansas
• No. 2 seed Purdue vs. No. 11 seed Texas

Arizona too big, too strong, and too athletic for the rest of the country right now (at least until a potential Final Four matchup with Michigan). Arkansas’ offense is explosive with stud freshman Darius Acuff at the controls, but their defense stinks in part because of Acuff’s shortcomings on that end. Given that Arizona doesn’t even rely on threes — it’s one of the lowest-volume outside shooting teams in the country — a cold shooting night won’t even stop the Wildcats. I expect Arizona to run right through John Calipari’s defense. It’s going to take a Herculean effort from Acuff, fellow freshmen backcourt mate Meleek Thomas, and stretch big man Trevon Brazile to get Arkansas into the shootout it needs to have a chance for an upset. Arizona’s floor is just so high, and I don’t think this is the team type of team that can get them.

Purdue’s struggles late in the Big Ten season seem like a distant memory now. The Boilermakers turned the ship around in the Big Ten tournament with four wins in four days including a victory over mighty Michigan in the championship game. They will keep it rolling in the Sweet 16 against a Texas team that never looked the part of a squad that could make it this far. Credit the Longhorns for playing their best ball at the right time, with sophomore center Matas Vokietaitis morphing into a college star, and junior wing Dailyn Swain emerging as a first-round NBA draft pick. Texas is still ranked No. 31 in KenPom even after three March Madness wins, which is way behind No. 8 Purdue. The Boilermakers have the size to keep Vokietaitis in check. Texas could have a chance if the refs allow contact on the perimeter, but ultimately Purdue’s talent wins out.

Purdue vs. Arizona will be a terrific matchup. Yes, I picked Purdue in this game in my instant bracket predictions. The more I thought about it, though, I realized Arizona’s strength and athleticism is just a way bigger advantage than Purdue’s shooting. The Wildcats are too good to lose in the Elite Eight. This is a Final Four team all the way.

Picks: Arizona over Arkansas | Purdue over Texas | Arizona over Purdue

Arizona to the Final Four