Steelers vs. Texans prediction, odds, pick for AFC Wild Card playoffs

After sneaking into the AFC Wild Card playoff picture, the Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) will remain home to face the streaking Houston Texans (12-5). The teams will kick off from Acrisure Stadium on Monday night to put a bow on the first round of the 2026 NFL playoffs.

The Steelers earned their bid after the wild sequence that ended their Week 18 “AFC Championship Game” against the Baltimore Ravens, which capped a 3-1 run to end the regular season. Pittsburgh is now in the playoffs for the third consecutive season, but is hosting a game for the first time since 2020.

Conversely, the Texans have been arguably the hottest team in the league since Week 10, which marked the beginning of their current nine-game win streak. Houston has not lost since Nov. 2, since which it has ridden its stifling defense.

The Texans have been the better team for most of the season, but they fell one game short of an AFC South title, thus forcing them to hit the road in the postseason. Houston has never won a playoff game on the road since it began play in 2002.

NFL Playoff Wild Card odds courtesy of DraftKings.

Steelers vs. Texans odds

Pittsburgh Steelers: +3 (-118)

Houston Texans: -3 (-102)

Over: 38.5 (-110)

Under: 38.5 (-110)

Steelers vs. Texans key injuries

Steelers

TE Darnell Washington, OUT (broken forearm)

LT Broderick Jones, OUT (neck)

S DeShon Elliott, OUT (knee)

Texans

RT Trent Brown, Questionable (ankle/knee)

Steelers vs. Texans betting trends

• Steelers are 9-7-1 against the spread
• Steelers are 6-3 against the spread at home
• Steelers are 3-2 against the spread as home underdog
• Steelers are 9-8 to the over
• Texans are 9-8 against the spread
• Texans are 4-4 against the spread on the road
• Texans are 1-1 against the spread as road favorite
• Texans have never won a playoff game on the road
• Texans are 6-11 to the over

Steelers vs. Texans matchup

The Texans almost seem too hot to beat right now, while the Steelers should probably not even be in the playoffs. That combination of factors will lead to a lot of public money being placed on Houston, but the matchup gives Pittsburgh a better-than-perceived chance to win its first playoff game since 2016.

The Steelers will struggle to run the ball against the Texans’ top-five rushing defense, but Aaron Rodgers has been their key to victory all year. Rodgers has topped 200 passing yards in eight of their 10 victories all year; he has gone under 200 yards in four of their seven losses.

Teams have also found it difficult to beat this Texans defense through the air, but it has been done more often than on the ground. All but four quarterbacks have topped 200 passing yards against Houston this season.

The air battle will be the key to victory for both teams, with the Steelers’ secondary struggling as much as any team in the league. While Pittsburgh’s rushing defense has improved significantly over the final two months of the regular season, it still ended the year allowing the fourth-most passing yards per game.

C.J. Stroud has been inconsistent against man-heavy defenses all year, which he will face on Monday. However, Nico Collins and Jayden Higgins have such coverage schemes and should win outside battles all night.

Most of the Texans’ success can be credited to their vastly improved offensive line, which has only allowed one sack over the final four regular season games. They will be put to the test against a Steelers’ pass-rush that ranks sixth with 48 sacks and just got T.J. Watt back in Week 18.

Steelers vs. Texans prediction and pick

Before DK Metcalf’s suspension threw them for a loop, the Steelers were quietly one of the most efficient offenses in the league down the stretch. They averaged 28 points per game in their first three months of December before sputtering in Week 17 without Metcalf, only to get back on track in Week 18 to clinch another last-second playoff berth.

Now they get Metcalf back to boost a passing game that has come alive late in the year. Rodgers averaged 247.2 passing yards in the final five games of the regular season and has not thrown an interception since Week 10.

The Texans are an elite defensive test, but they are also a team that has performed much better at home than on the road. Houston, which has never won an away game in the postseason, has only beaten one playoff team on the road all season.

The last time the Texans played a road playoff game, they allowed eight sacks to Stroud. They have been much better at pass-protection this season, but they are still mostly the same unit that got tormented by the Chiefs’ pass-rushing attack. The Steelers’ pass-rushers are riding high after dominating the Ravens in Week 18 and will not give Stroud much time to set up the deep attacks that Houston heavily relies on.

Neither team has much of a leg-up on the other on paper, and Wild Card games have historically come down to the wire more often than not. In those situations, trust the veteran Rodgers, who has been in this situation time and again, over the inconsistent Stroud.

Final Steelers-Texans prediction & pick: Steelers +3 (-118), Under 38.5 (-110)

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