Rafael Estevam vs. Ethyn Ewing prediction, odds, pick for UFC Vegas 115

We’re back with another prediction and pick for the UFC Vegas 115 Main Card as we turn attention towards this next Bantamweight (135) scrap. Brazil’s Rafael Estevam will take on California’s Ethyn Ewing as someone will be handed their first UFC loss. Check our UFC odds series for the Estevam-Ewing prediction and pick.

Rafael Estevam (14-0) has gone a perfect 3-0 inside the UFC since debuting in 2023, most recently taking Felipe Bunes out via unanimous decision. He’s won all his UFC appearances by unanimous decision and looks to add another in his climb up the rankings. Estevam stands 5-foot-8 with a 69-inch reach.

Ethyn Ewing (9-2) will make his second UFC appearance following a debut win over Malcolm Wellmaker at UFC 322. He’s won nine-straight fights leading into this new opportunity, hoping to fast track his climb through the stacked division with a win as the underdog. Ewing stands 5-foot-7 with a 69-inch reach.

UFC Vegas 115 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC Vegas 115 Odds: Rafael Estevam-Ethyn Ewing Odds

Rafael Estevam: -142

Ethyn Ewing: +120

Over 2.5 rounds: -188

Under 2.5 rounds: +145

Why Rafael Estevam Will Win

• Last Fight: (W) Felipe Bunes – U DEC
• Last 5: 5-0
• Finishes: 4 KO/TKO, 3 SUB

Rafael Estevam put together another complete performance his last time out against Felipe Bunes, out-striking Bunes 128-38 on the final total while landing five of nine takedown attempts. It’s his third-consecutive unanimous decision in the UFC, doing so against very good competition in Charles Johnson, Jesus Aguilar, and Bunes. However, Estevam missed weight in two of those bout including his most recent one, certainly needing to dial that part of his game to stay in the UFC’s good graces.

Regardless of his mishaps on the scales, Estevam is an extremely well-rounded prospect that’s willing to scrap anywhere the fight takes place. He’s very decisive with his grappling and will quickly put opponents in a bad spot by trapping their wrist or securing the ankles. From the mount, he’s almost guaranteed to finish the fight with strikes or taking the back and sinking in a choke.

It’ll be interesting to see what type of shape he’s in ahead of this fight and whether he’s able to make weight and beat the “weight bully” allegations. Either way, Estevam hasn’t shown many gaps in his game through this point and should honestly be a slightly bigger favorite thanks to his experience against credited competitors.

Why Ethyn Ewing Will Win

• Last Fight: (W) Malcolm Wellmaker – U DEC
• Last 5: 5-0
• Finishes: 6 KO/TKO, 1 SUB

Ethyn Ewing put together a huge underdog surprise performance against Malcolm Wellmaker at UFC 322, stepping in on short notice and dominating in all areas. He led the striking numbers and landed three takedowns while turning away all of Wellmaker’s attempts, immediately putting him on the UFC’s radar as a promising talent. This time around, he’ll face the toughest test of his career in trying to notch back-to-back wins as the underdog.

Ewing has already made his UFC title aspirations known and he’s extremely driven with the way he approaches his training and preparation for a fight. A weight miss on Estevam’s part would only be taken as disrespect for Ewing, something that would only add fuel to his fire in trying to finish this fight.

Ewing fights behind a very effective dirty boxing style, oftentimes closing the distance while weaving through punches and landing shots of his own. He’s not very worried about eating punches on his way in as long as he’s able to get his combinations off before slipping back out of range. Expect a similar tactic during this fight as he looks to clinch and land shots from in close against Estevam.

Final Rafael Estevam-Ethyn Ewing Prediction & Pick

Both fighters in this bout are ultra-aggressive with their striking and fans should be in for a tense fight on the feet. Both sides are also very dangerous on the ground, so we should see a ton of respects from both fighters regarding the skill level of their opponent.

We have to give Ethyn Ewing the advantage when it comes to preparation and executing an effective game plan. It’ll be interesting to see if his technique is any resistance to Estevam’s forward pressure and effort to overwhelm his opponent.

Still, Rafael Estevam is the rightful favorite in this matchup and his track record up to this point speaks for itself. He should be able to out-pace Ewing on the feet with his active striking while offering reversals and intermittent looks at his own takedowns. Let’s roll with Rafael Estevam for our final prediction as he earns another decision nod.

Final Rafael Estevam-Ethyn Ewing Prediction & Pick: Rafael Estevam (-142); OVER 2.5 Rounds (-188)

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