Bears vs. Rams prediction, odds, pick for NFC Divisional Round

The Los Angeles Rams survived a stiffer-than-expected test at Carolina to keep their postseason run alive. Of course, they leaned on Matthew Stafford’s poise and production. Stafford threw for 304 yards and three touchdowns. He delivered in key moments despite briefly exiting with a finger injury. X-rays came back negative, and he is expected to be fully available for the Divisional Round. Still, the narrow escape raised questions as the Rams prepare to face a more physical, emotionally charged environment on the road.

That challenge comes in Chicago against a Bears team that yielded the fourth-most yards during the regular season. More importantly, they have developed a reputation for late-game resilience. Caleb Williams passed for 361 yards in the Wild Card Round. Nearly 190 came in the fourth quarter alone, though the performance also included two interceptions. Chicago has consistently been at its best after halftime. With cold conditions expected at Soldier Field, analytical models increasingly view the Bears as a legitimate home upset threat. Note also that this environment has historically complicated Stafford’s efficiency in the past.

Bears vs. Rams betting odds

Bears: +3.5, -102
Rams: -3.5, -118
Over: 48.5, -110
Under: 48.5, -110

(All odds courtesy of DraftKings)

Bears vs. Rams key injuries for NFC Divisional Round

Bears: DB Nick McCloud, WR DJ Moore (knee), WR Rome Odunze (foot), LB Jalen Reeves-Maybin (back)

Rams: CB Darious Williams (personal), OL Kevin Dotson (ankle), DT Poona Ford (elbow), QB Matthew Stafford (hand)

Bears vs. Rams betting trends

The Bears and Rams have played each other eight times from 2012 onwards. They have split those head-to-head matchups evenly, 4-4. Los Angeles, however, has had more recent success. The Rams have won three of their last four meetings with the Bears. That said, Chicago won their last game against the Rams, 24-18, in Week 4 of the 2024 season. The Rams, however, have averaged +1.1 more points per game in all those matchups. Entering the NFC Divisional Round, both teams are coming off separte victories. Chicago snapped a two-game slump with a scintillating comeback win over the Green Bay Packers in the Wild Card Round, 31-27. Meanwhile, the Rams have booked back-to-back wins. They beat the Cardinals in Week 18 before a 34-31 Wild Card win over the Panthers.

Several betting trends do indicate that this will be a very close game:

• The Bears have lost each of their last eight games against opponents on a winning streak.
• The underdogs have covered the spread in each of the Rams’ last seven postseason games.
• Each of the Rams’ last seven games have gone over the total points line.
• The Rams have scored first in each of their last seven games against the Bears.

2025 records:

Chicago, 12-6 straight up, 11-5-2 ATS; Los Angeles, 13-5 straight up, 12-6 ATS

Over/Under
Chicago 9-8-1; Los Angeles, 11-7

Keys to Bears vs. Rams matchup

Chicago Bears

Establish the run:
Chicago must lean on D’Andre Swift and the ground game to control tempo and keep Stafford off the field. Sustained drives also protect a defense that can be vulnerable early.

Force turnovers:
The Bears thrived on takeaways throughout the regular season. Creating short fields and capitalizing on Stafford’s occasional risk-taking is crucial.

Utilize home-field advantage:
Soldier Field’s cold weather and an energized crowd can disrupt timing for a dome-based offense. Chicago’s second-half success suggests patience could pay dividends. Another late-game surge beckons.

Los Angeles Rams

Matthew Stafford’s consistency:
Stafford remains an MVP-caliber presence. Limiting mistakes and staying efficient under pressure will be essential, especially if conditions deteriorate.

Contain Caleb Williams:
Los Angeles must prevent Williams from extending plays and producing explosive scrambles or late-game heroics. Those have defined Chicago’s recent wins.

Defensive line pressure:
The Rams’ front needs to win early. They must shed blocks and stress an offensive line dealing with injuries. Disruption up front tightens Chicago’s margin for error.

Bears vs. Rams prediction and pick

The Rams have looked like an NFC powerhouse for most of the season. However, they have appeared more vulnerable since their overtime loss to Seattle in Week 16. Remember that they barely survived against an 8–9 Panthers team. Chicago also escaped its Wild Card matchup, but the emotional lift of a comeback win over a division rival combined with genuine home-field advantage tilts the balance. Expect swings, explosive plays, and a finish that couold go down to the final seconds.

Final score prediction: Bears 30, Rams 28
Spread: Bears +3.5
Over/Under: Over 48.5

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