Why Vanderbilt basketball is on upset alert in 2026 NCAA Tournament

Vanderbilt basketball sparked quite the conversations ahead of March Madness. The Commodores looked like they landed a high seed following their deep Southeastern Conference tournament run. But Vanderbilt left fans up in arms over its fifth seed placement before facing McNeese State.

Still, Vandy delivers its first consecutive NCAA Tournament appearance since 2015 to 2017. This time Mark Byington leads the Commodores into the 68-team field.

The SEC power will aim to carry their momentum to the South Regional, where a possible Sweet 16 meeting against SEC rival Florida could be in the works. Vanderbilt enters the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City as a big 11.5-point favorite per FanDuel Sportsbook.

But Vandy’s opponent will be no pushover in looking closely at the Cowboys.

Why Vanderbilt is on upset alert

The Southland Conference champs know the March Madness stage well too. They’re making their third consecutive appearance in the tourney.

But the experience isn’t the only edge here for McNeese.

Vandy is tangling with one of more highly aggressive defenses among the 68-team field. McNeese forces an astonishing 19 turnovers a game. And the Cowboys’ backcourt features turnover creators.

Guards Javohn Garcia, Tyshawn Archie, Garwey Dual and Larry Johnson all average more than 1.2 steals a game. McNeese snatches 10.8 steals a night as a team.

McNeese presents a swat artist as well. Senior forward Jerrell Colbert delivered 11 games of swatting two blocks or more, including hitting five against Lamar University on Jan. 31.

The Cowboys stress defenders out on offense too. McNeese presents one of the highest scoring margins in this tournament plus can beat teams on the fast break.

How Vanderbilt counters McNeese State

Vanderbilt is deepest at guard with Tyler Tanner and Duke Miles leading the backcourt. Both play at a fast pace that features needing just one pass to create the shot attempt. Both also average more than two steals a game in establishing their defensive presence.

The SEC heavyweight additionally can overwhelm their foe off size. Only four Cowboys players tower above 6-foot-8, with no one standing at 6-foot-11. Byington can get the Commodores to pound inside against the mid-major in the name of wearing them down.

Vandy presents its own high steal percentage too, ranking ninth nationally with 14.2%. Frankie Collins rises as one more who grabs more than two steals a night.

Speed and defense propelled the SEC tournament run for the Nashville university. Both elements can throw off McNeese State inside the home of the Oklahoma City Thunder.

But McNeese brings its own set of wheels and tenacity. Head coach Bill Armstrong has his team one win away from a school record 29 victories. Their defensive energy and deep backcourt presents the reasons why an early upset alert sounds off here.

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