Why Spurs can still beat Thunder in WCF after Game 5 loss

The San Antonio Spurs were on the end of the Western Conference Finals roller coaster on Tuesday night, dropping Game 5 against the Oklahoma City Thunder 127-114 to take a 3-2 series lead.

The deficit puts the Spurs just one win away from elimination and the Thunder a win away from going back to the NBA Finals for a second-consecutive season.

While the Spurs seem down and out, especially after a Game 5 where the Thunder were in control for most of the game, they are still not out of this series. Experience is not on their side, and neither is home-court advantage. However, there are still a few reasons that the Spurs can get back into this series and pull off the upset.

The Thunder’s 3-point shooting could come down

The Thunder lost Game 4 in San Antonio in a game where they shot just 6-of-33 from 3-point range, leaving their offense mostly helpless against a Spurs defense that was flying around all game long. In Game 5 back at home, Oklahoma City came back with a vengeance, drilling 14-of-32 shots from beyond the arc to keep the Spurs at arm’s length.

Alex Caruso his four 3s and Jared McCain knocked down three of them during a huge second half to help Oklahoma City get the win. Traditionally, role players don’t perform quite as well in road games, so there is a chance that some of that shooting dries up in Game 6 back in San Antonio.

Earlier in the series, the Spurs sent a lot of double-teams at Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, which gave away some open 3s to the supporting OKC players. When they stopped doing that in Game 4, some of those open looks dried up. If they can get back to taking away those open 3-pointers, which they showed the ability to do in Game 4, there is a path to victory in this series.

Victor Wembanyama can be the best player on the court, even with the MVP

After completely dominating Game 4, especially in the first half, Victor Wembanyama had a bit of a strange Game 5. The French superstar wasn’t super aggressive on the offensive end of the floor and didn’t have his jumper working.

Wembanyama continued to settle for perimeter shots throughout the night to no avail. He finished Game 5 with 20 points, but on just 4-of-15 shooting while missing all five of his 3-pointers.

It’s obviously a lot more complex than this, but the first five games of this series can be boiled down to the performance of Wemabnyama. When he has dominated and been the best player on the floor, like in Games 1 and 4, the Spurs have come out on top. When he has an off night and is bothered by the physicality and depth that the Thunder bring to the table, the Spurs fall short.

Does he have two more big games in him? It’s a tall ask, especially in his first playoff run where he is almost certainly feeling a little heavy in the legs. But we have never seen anything like Wembanyama, and he is one of the most competitive freaks in the NBA, so it’s not out of the question that he could continue pushing the envelope by leading a heroic comeback in this series.

The Spurs are cutting down on their turnovers

One of the best things that the Thunder do is force turnovers. That is the biggest adjustment that any team has to make when it goes into a series against Oklahoma City, and the Spurs are no different.

San Antonio turned the ball over 44 times in the first two games, but that number has been coming down over the last three. Oklahoma City forced just 15 turnovers in Game 3, 13 in Game 4 and 15 again in Game 5.

Those aren’t stellar numbers by any means, but the Spurs can manage to scrap out wins in this series when their turnover numbers are in the teens. When they’re in the twenties? That’s a tougher task.

Getting De’Aaron Fox back has helped in this department, but Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper have also gotten more used to OKC’s pressure despite some sloppy moments in Game 5.

The Spurs have a lot of firepower on offense, enough to score points on even the best defense in basketball. When they aren’t turning the ball over, they can go on big runs on that end of the floor, and that is another reason why they are not out of this series just yet.

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