What happens if India loses to Pakistan? - Qualification scenario explained

Days after negotiations and Pakistan initially calling for a boycott against India, the clash in the ICC Men's T20 World Cup is finally set to go ahead as scheduled. After a period of political uncertainty, India and Pakistan are once again ready to lock horns on February 15 in Colombo. 

How have India and Pakistan fared so far in T20 World Cup 2026

Both teams have started their campaigns strongly in Group A. India sits at the top of the table with two wins from two matches, collecting four points and a superior net run rate of positive 3.050. They began with a 29-run win over the USA at the Wankhede Stadium before thrashing Namibia by 93 runs in Delhi. On the other hand, Pakistan is second in the standings, also with four points from two matches and a net run rate of positive 0.932. They defeated the Netherlands by three wickets and followed it up with a 32-run victory over the United States.

What happens if India loses to Pakistan? - Qualification scenario explained

With both teams unbeaten so far, the upcoming fixture is not a must-win in mathematical terms, but it could prove decisive in determining who finishes top of the group. The top two teams from Group A will qualify for the Super Eight stage. If India loses to Pakistan, they would remain on four points from three matches. However, their final group match against the Netherlands would become important. A win there would take them to six points and guarantee qualification.

However, a loss unlikely, could open the door for a net run rate situation involving Pakistan and the Netherlands. For Pakistan, a victory over India would virtually seal their Super Eight berth, taking them to six points with one match still to play against Namibia. Even if India loses this game, their strong net run rate gives them a strong hold.

India vs Pakistan Head-to-Head Record in T20 World Cups

Meanwhile, historically, India has dominated Pakistan in T20 World Cups. In eight previous meetings between the two in the tournament, India have won seven times, while Pakistan have managed just one victory. India’s dominance began in the inaugural 2007 edition and has largely continued ever since, including iconic wins in 2012, 2014, 2016, 2022, and 2024. Pakistan’s only triumph came in 2021 in Dubai, when they secured a historic 10-wicket win.