Turnover regression has been a big theme of the 2026 NFL Playoffs

Through two rounds of the 2026 NFL postseason, turnovers have been a major story as usual, whether for timeliness, volume, or both. The Los Angeles Rams and Denver Broncos are both a win away from the Super Bowl thanks to overtime interceptions resulting in eventual game-winning field goals (although one was a lot more controversial than the other), while the Buffalo Bills and Houston Texans are out after their respective ball security nightmares.

One of the blessings and curses of “win or go home” playoff games is that season-long trends don’t always stay intact, and that’s been the case these past two weeks. Turnover regression has swung positively and negatively for several eliminated teams and the top seeds in the Conference Championship round.

Bears, Texans, and Jaguars come back to Earth

The top three teams in positive turnover differential were the Chicago Bears (+22), Houston Texans (+17), and Jacksonville Jaguars (+13). All of them picked the worst possible time for negative turnover regression.

Chicago led the NFL in takeaways with 33, which propped up what was otherwise a below-average defense. After recording at least one turnover in 15 of 17 regular season games, the Bears failed to turn the Green Bay Packers and Los Angeles Rams over despite numerous opportunities. Meanwhile, Caleb Williams went from throwing seven interceptions all season to five in the postseason. The Bears had never finished -3 in turnovers under Caleb Williams until last Sunday, and the final interception to Kam Curl proved to be a dagger.

The elite Houston Texans defense ranked third in takeaways whereas the offense was second-best in giveaways. Demeco Ryans’ defense maintained its dominance by forcing five turnovers off of Aaron Rodgers and Drake Maye, only for C.J. Stroud to unravel. Stroud got away with a three-turnover showing in a blowout of the Pittsburgh Steelers, but a comically bad four-interception disaster versus the New England Patriots was too much to overcome. Add in Woody Marks’ red zone fumble and the Texans turned it over five times for the first time since 2021.

Lastly, the Jaguars were second in defensive interceptions and only lost the turnover battle twice in the regular season. In the Wild Card round versus the Buffalo Bills, they neither won the turnover battle nor picked Josh Allen off. They did get a takeaway off of a Ray Davis kickoff return fumble but scored no points off of it. Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence, who’d thrown 11 picks in his first 11 regular season games before throwing just one over the remaining six starts, had a first quarter interception resulting in a Bills field goal, and a season-ending pick in Jacksonville’s do-or-die possession.

Broncos, Seahawks buck regular season woes

The top teams in the AFC and NFC respectively made some history together. For the first time since seeding was introduced to the NFL playoffs in 1975, both number one seeds finished the regular season with a negative turnover differential. Denver and Seattle had identical -3 margins, but the Broncos were low on turnovers and giveaways, whereas the Seahawks had the second-most turnovers to outpace the sixth-most takeaways. Seattle quarterback Sam Darnold led the NFL with 20 turnovers, and the Seahawks topped the lost fumbles category—even their defense turned it over twice by fumbling interceptions back to the opposition.

How quickly things can change for the better.

Vance Joseph’s defense, which hadn’t forced more than two turnovers in a game all season, got four off of Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen and another from league-leading rusher James Cook. Bo Nix threw an interception but Allen gave it right back with a pick of his own. Denver scored 16 of their 33 points came off of Buffalo giveaways. If they’re to stand a chance in the AFC Championship without Bo Nix, a repeat of the Bills game on defense may be the winning formula to spring an upset.

Meanwhile, the Seahawks again made life hell for the 49ers offense, turning Brock Purdy over twice and recovering a Jake Tonges fumble in their 41-6 rout. Realistically, the turnovers didn’t have a strong effect on the outcome; what’s more important for Seattle was Darnold and the offense not turning it over for only the fifth time all season. It’s also the first time since Mike Macdonald became head coach in 2024 that Seattle has gone back-to-back games without a turnover.

There is recent precedent for Super Bowl champions with negative turnover differentials. The 2023 Kansas City Chiefs were somehow -11 in the regular season but +2 in the playoffs, the 2022 Chiefs were -3 in the regular season before a +4 mark in the postseason, and the 2015 Denver Broncos turned a -3 margin (including a league-worst 23 interceptions) into +4 in the playoffs.

Patriots, Rams living charmed lives?

The other half of the Conference Championship field consists of the New England Patriots and Los Angeles Rams, both of whom have been on the positive side of the turnover count all season, and outside of New England’s Wild Card victory over the Los Angeles Chargers, that’s held up through the playoffs. However, there’s been plenty of good fortune along the way for their MVP candidate quarterbacks.

It’s hard to believe that Drake Maye could be considered lucky to only have five turnovers through his first postseason, but he has fumbled six times already (two fewer than his entire regular season). The Patriots were able to recover three, most notably a strip-sack that Danielle Hunter seemed destined to pick up and at least set Houston up at New England’s 3-yard line, only for rookie left tackle Will Campbell to save the day.

Matthew Stafford has just the one turnover to his name after facing the Carolina Panthers and Chicago Bears. Far from his sharpest at Soldier Field, Stafford fumbled twice on strip-sacks but the Bears couldn’t capitalize. Maybe the biggest play of the Rams’ season was not Kam Curl’s pick of Caleb Williams, but superstar receiver Puka Nacua breaking up a surefire interception to Nick Scott in the Panthers game when the Rams were trailing in the fourth quarter.

Turnovers have been a huge factor in the NFC Championship matchup, with the Rams getting six interceptions off Sam Darnold (plus a Cooper Kupp fumble for good measure) through two extremely close meetings. Seattle recovered a Puka Nacua fumble in the first game in Week 11, but ultimately Stafford has kept a clean scorecard. The trilogy may come down to whether or not Seattle can overcome its season-long issues on offense and if its defense finally forcing major mistakes out of Stafford.