Tennessee basketball’s fatal flaw that will cost it in SEC conference title race

Tennessee basketball has won six of its last seven games. At 18-7 and 8-4 in conference play, the Vols are currently tied for third in the SEC. If they are looking to make a run for another SEC conference title, they have some areas of weakness that need to be fixed.

The Rick Barnes era at Tennessee has consistently shown the Vols to be in contention in the SEC. Barned showed up in Knoxville for the 2015-16 season, and in 2017-18 led them to a regular-season conference title. The team also made the tournament that year, advancing to the round of 32. Since then, Tennessee has made the NCAA tournament every year, except when the tournament was cancelled due to COVID-19 in 2020.

Barnes has also led Tennessee to the Elite Eight in back-to-back years, while winning the SEC tournament in 2021-22 and the regular season crown in 2023-24. The Vols also have some positive aspects of their team. They are great at rebounding, sitting third in the nation in rebounds per game. Further, they move the ball well, as Tennessee is 23rd in assists per game and 18th in assist-to-field-goal ratio. While they have some positive aspects, they have a fatal flaw that will doom them in the race for the SEC.

The Vols turn the ball over too much

While the Vols are 23rd in assists this year, they have trouble passing at times. The passes have been so bad at times that Barnes has even questioned if his players are betting on the other team.

“Some of the passes that we throw, I don’t know what to say other than sometimes I wonder if my guys are betting on games,” Barnes said, via Tennessee reporter Paige Dauer. “I shouldn’t say that — erase that. I just wonder what’s happening. Because I know we’re too good of players to do that.”

This year, Tennessee is turning over the ball 12.6 times per game, which is 278th in the nation. Further, they give the ball away on 17.8 percent of their possessions, which is 273rd nationally and the worst mark in the SEC. Making the turnovers worse is their inability to create opponent turnovers. They are 218th in opponent turnovers per game. Meanwhile, Alabama, Arkansas, and Vanderbilt all rank inside the top 12 in fewest turnovers per possesion this year. Tennessee faces Alabama once and Vanderbilt twice before the end of the season.

Nate Ament has been one of the top players for Tennessee this year. He is scoring 17.7 points per game, but he is also turning the ball over 2.5 times per game. Meanwhile, Ja’Kabi Gillespie is averaging 2.3 turnovers per game. When those two are struggling to hold onto the ball, this leads to major deficits for Tennessee. The big deficits expose the fatal flaw of the Vols.

Tennessee’s fatal flaw is shooting from behind the arc 

When Tennessee gets behind, they struggled to make the comeback. Tennessee is strong defensively, sitting 16th in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency. While the defense is strong, when Tennessee gives up extra possessions, its fatal flaw is exposed. First, Tennessee does not play with a quick pace, sitting 272nd in adjusted tempo this year. That makes every possession more important. Then, the offense is not nearly as efficient as the defense, sitting 36th in KenPom’s rankings.

Tennessee has been horrible from three this season. The Vols do not take a lot of three-point attempts, sitting 282nd in three-point attempts, but they hit just 35.2 percent of their threes, which is 105th in the nation. They average just seven three-pointers made per game this season. All this combines to make the Vols the worst three-point shooting team in the conference.

Ament and Gillespie are the top three-point shooters for the Vols this year. Gillespie is shooting just 36 percent this year, hitting 73 of 203 attempts. Ament is the only other player who has attempted more than 50 three-pointers. He is shooting 31.7 percent, making 32 of 101 attempts this year. Still, when the Vols are down, teams know they have to guard Ament and Gillespie closely, as seen in the game against Kentucky.

“Well, obviously, with the way we made shots in the first half, you knew they were going to put more emphasis on the perimeter with Ja’Kobi (Gillespie) and Nate (Ament). And we were getting what we wanted in the middle ball screen, we just didn’t finish it,” Barnes said after the loss to Kentucky. In that game, Gillespie and Ament both struggled from three in the second half, making it nearly impossible for Tennessee to make the comeback.

Turnovers lead to deficits, and Tennessee is not built to make comebacks. With teams in the SEC that are both great at scoring and great at forcing turnovers, Tennessee will struggle to win the conference in 2026.

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