Seahawks’ odds for NFC No. 1 seed with 2 weeks left in regular season

Who expected the Seattle Seahawks to be here? Before the start of the season, Seattle was pegged to be a middle-of-the-pack team this year. Perhaps they’d be a high Wild Card team at best. Yet, here we are. With two games left in the season, the Seahawks hold the first seed in the NFC.

It’s been a wild ride this season, and the way they earned that first seed was dramatic as well. Facing off against the Los Angeles Rams in Week 16, Seattle found themselves down by 16 points late in the game. However, Seattle rallied all the way back to tie the game in regulation and eventually won the game in overtime. That win gave Seattle the first seed in the NFC this season.

How likely is it that the Seahawks keep the first seed in the NFC? Let’s look at what the top playoff models (The Athletic, FTN’s DVOA, and ESPN) say about the Seahawks’ odds.

Seahawks’ first-seed odds with two weeks left

The Seahawks have been one of the better teams in the NFL this season. After the win in Week 16 over the Rams, they’ve earned the first seed in the NFC with a 12-3 record. The Seahawks are trying to fend off the Chicago Bears, the San Francisco 49ers, and the Rams for that coveted first-round bye.

The Seahawks are currently the most favored team in the NFC to win that first seed this season. FTN’s DVOA is the most optimistic about Seattle’s chances of earning that first-round bye, with a 52.3% chance. The Athletic gives them slightly similar odds at around 51%. On the other hand, ESPN isn’t as convinced as the first two models, giving them a 41% chance of winning the conference.

Seahawks’ path to the first seed 

Why do the Seahawks have the best odds? Well, it’s because they control their own destiny. By winning their upcoming games against the Carolina Panthers and the San Francisco 49ers, the Seahawks get the first seed and a first-round bye.

Should the Seahawks lose this week to the Carolina Panthers, things get a bit murkier. Seattle still has a chance of winning the first seed in a convoluted fashion that would involve multiple teams losing in a specific order. However, regardless of whatever happens, Seattle would not have their first seed chances in their control.

The Seahawks should be easy favorites against the Panthers this week. While Carolina has enjoyed a lot of success this season, they’ve been extremely inconsistent. Seattle’s relentless defense will give Bryce Young and the offense a ton of issues, and Sam Darnold has played pretty well over the last few weeks. It’s what comes next week that could be cause for concern.

The 49ers have sneakily been one of the best teams this season. They weathered the storm of injuries they had early this season and sprung out to a 11-4 record through 16 weeks. With Brock Purdy returning a few weeks ago and the rest of the offensive core getting healthy, the 49ers pose a huge threat for the Seahawks’ dreams of earning the first seed.

The last time the Seahawks and the 49ers faced each other was back in Week 1. The 49ers defense stifled the Seahawks back then, limiting Darnold to 150 yards and holding Seattle to just 230 yards on the day with one touchdown. Even in that game, though, we saw how brutal the Seattle defense was. They forced two interceptions from Purdy in that game.

Their Week 18 game will look drastically different. For the 49ers, they will be without their two best defenders in linebacker Fred Warner (ACL) and pass-rusher Nick Bosa (Achilles). Seattle, on the other hand, traded for Rashid Shaheed mid-season. If Seattle wants to earn its spot atop the NFC, they’ll have to go through this new-look San Francisco team.

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