PSG vs Chelsea predictions and betting tips – Defending champions face challenge

Paris Saint-Germain only just squeezed into the last 16 of the Champions League, and Luis Enrique knows that his side must step things up a level against Chelsea.

The Blues beat PSG in the final of the Club World Cup last summer, but plenty has changed for the west Londoners since then. How will this one go at the Parc des Princes?

• Chelsea to win or a draw – 10/11 with bet365
• Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals – 17/20 with bet365
• Joao Pedro to score any time – 12/5 with bet365

Paris Saint-Germain vs Chelsea odds

Find the latest Paris Saint-Germain vs Chelsea betting odds here. All odds are provided by our recommended football bookmakers and are subject to change.

PSG vs Chelsea predictions

It took a while for Paris Saint-Germain to get going in last season’s Champions League.

With just two games remaining in the league phase, Luis Enrique’s side were not even in the play-off places.

A 4-2 victory over Manchester City on matchday seven sparked them into life, and PSG secured a 15th-place finish thanks to a 4-1 victory over Stuttgart in their final game.

From there, the Parisians did not look back. They thumped Brest in the knockout phase play-offs, before deservedly eliminating Liverpool in the round of 16.

PSG conquered two more English teams in the form of Aston Villa and Arsenal, before a dazzling display in the final earned them a 5-0 victory over Inter.

Luis Enrique will hope the best is still to come this season too. Because up until now, PSG have been pretty ordinary at home and abroad.

There have been a few plus points, most notably a 2-1 win away to Barcelona when PSG were missing several players due to injury.

The holders also thrashed Atalanta (4-0) and Bayer Leverkusen (7-2) in the league phase, as well as beating Tottenham Hotspur 5-2. Only Arsenal, Bayern Munich and Barcelona scored more goals than PSG.

Yet Luis Enrique’s men won just one of their last five matches and ultimately finished 11th, again forcing them into the play-offs.

Many expect PSG would negotiate a two-legged tie against Monaco with a minimum of fuss, but that is not how it transpired. They eventually squeezed past their fellow French team 5-4 on aggregate, but PSG made hard work of it.

Does it reflect well on PSG that they are through to the round of 16 without having been at their best so far? Or are the warning signs there to suggest the Parisians are unlikely to retain their continent crown?

Wednesday’s game against Chelsea will give us an indication of the answer to those questions. 

The Blues memorably beat PSG in the final of the Club World Cup last summer, but there is a different man in their dugout these days.

Liam Rosenior has had a broadly positive start to his Stamford Bridge tenure despite the fact his appointment was not universally popular with the club’s supporters.

Having the second leg at home is widely seen as advantageous, but first up Chelsea will aim to get something from their trip to the Parc des Princes.

PSG vs Chelsea betting tips

PSG face Chelsea in the first leg of their Champions League last-16 clash.

Chelsea can avoid defeat

PSG did not have an ideal warm-up for this European tie, as a 3-1 home defeat by Monaco on Friday reopened the door to Lens in the Ligue 1 title race.

It was another unconvincing performance from PSG, who will need to be much better if they are to register a victory on Wednesday.

It is still early days for Rosenior, but Chelsea have only lost two of his 15 matches in charge in all competitions.

Both of those defeats came at the hands of Arsenal, who are arguably the best team in Europe right now. With PSG some way short of their best of late, Chelsea can avoid defeat in this one.

Go for a Chelsea win or a draw at 10/11 with bet365

Attacks to shine

PSG have played 10 matches in the Champions League this campaign. In eight of those, both teams have scored. And there have been over 2.5 goals in eight of them too.

Chelsea’s recent matches have also featured plenty of action. They shared six goals with Wrexham last time out and five with Aston Villa a few days earlier.

A 3-2 victory over Napoli in Rosenior’s only previous Champions League encounter also featured zero clean sheets and more than 2.5 goals.

This promises to be an entertaining affair between two teams better going forward than they are defensively.

Back both teams to score and over 2.5 goals at 17/20 with bet365

Joao Pedro to strike again

Joao Pedro looks like a completely different player under Rosenior.

The former Strasbourg boss has encouraged the Brazilian to take fewer touches outside the box and focus on getting into dangerous scoring positions.

That tactical tweak has worked a treat: the former Brighton & Hove Albion frontman has scored 11 goals since Rosenior’s appointment in January.

Joao Pedro can add another one to his tally at the Parc des Princes.

Select Joao Pedro to score any time at 12/5 with bet365

PSG vs Chelsea predicted lineups

• PSG expected lineup: Safonov; Hakimi, Zabarnyi, Pacho, Mendes; Zaire-Emery, Vitinha, Dro; Dembele, Barcola, Kvaratskhelia.
• Chelsea expected lineup: Jorgensen; James, Fofana, Chalobah, Cucurella; Caicedo, Fernandez; Neto, Palmer, Garnacho;  Pedro.

Where to watch PSG vs Chelsea

• Location: Parc des Princes, Paris, France.
• Date and time: Wednesday 11th March, 8pm.
• How to watch: TNT Sports 2.

More Champions League predictions

We have plenty more Champions League predictions and picks – find our latest betting tips from expert punters in our match preview overview.

About the author

Greg Lea

Greg Lea is a freelance football writer from London. He predominantly covers the Premier League and has had work published by the Guardian, FourFourTwo, ESPN and others.

Follow Greg on X: @GregLeaFootball

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