Predicting the Cavs’ playoff rotation for Raptors series: Who is odd man out?

With their regular season in the rearview mirror, the Cleveland Cavaliers are wiping the slate clean, as they officially tip off the NBA playoffs against the Toronto Raptors at 1 p.m. ET on Saturday afternoon at Rocket Arena. There’s no questioning the Cavs’ depth and resilience after winning 51 games with 42 different starting lineups, but who is going to start and make the cut in the playoff rotation for Cleveland head coach Kenny Atkinson?

“Who’s finishing, who that fifth starter is, I think those are up in the air,” Atkinson said last week. “It depends on availability first and foremost, and then you’ve got to figure out what the matchup looks like, what fits best. Hopefully, in Game 1 of the playoffs, we’ve got everybody available, and we have to make those decisions.”

Besides Thomas Bryant, who is dealing with an untimely left calf strain, Atkinson will likely get his wish.

Let’s get the obvious out of the way: James Harden, Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, and Jarrett Allen will all be everyday players. Harden, Mitchell, and Mobley will command mid-to-upper 30s in the minutes column. Allen could be anywhere from mid-20s to low 30s, all dependent on how his right knee tendinitis holds up.

Considering who has started and finished games post-All-Star break, we can comfortably pencil in Dean Wade, Sam Merrill, Max Strus, and Keon Ellis, which adds up to eight just like that. Wade will likely play around 20-to-25 minutes, while Merrill should be somewhere between that 22-to-28 range. Strus and Ellis’ playing time could hover around 16-20 minutes.

The ninth spot is where it gets interesting and, frankly, matchup-dependent.

“I’d hate to be Kenny having to pick all of us,” Mitchell said last week. “But I think it really helps [that] now we’re fresh, now we’re finding ways. You have a lot of playoff experience in this locker room.”

Dennis Schroder came over in a trade with Ellis from the Sacramento Kings in the De’Andre Hunter deal, and the German veteran brings a wealth of NBA postseason and international big-stage knowledge. His ball-handling skills, downhill burst, and defensive intensity give the Cavs a legitimate backup point guard they can go to if need be. You can’t replace reps like that.

“Meaningful basketball games, I’ve played a couple of ’em already in my career,” Schroder said in mid-February. “Just try to do the winning plays. Try to be a dog out there as well on the defensive side of the ball because we’ve got a lot of people who can score the ball.

“So, at the end of the day, try to bring that dog mentality to this organization. Meaningful games is what we work for every single day. I love those. So, at the end of the day, whatever it takes. Sometimes, it’s take the last shot. Some of ’em, it’s don’t get no shots and get a stop on defense. Make a hustle play. Whatever it is, I’mma be ready for it. That’s what I try to bring to this organization.”

On the flip side, the recently returned Jaylon Tyson offers Atkinson a presence on the wing that makes a lot of sense against the rangy, hybrid-forward-heavy Raptors. In his last two games, the second-year swingman showcased his ability to rebound, make plays for others, and guard on the perimeter. Though his role won’t be the same as it was in the winter months when he was a starter, Tyson is bought in to whatever the team needs him to do to win games.

“I mean, for me, it’s going to be the defensive side,” Tyson said Sunday. “I’m going to have to be a pest on defense. I’m going to have to be one of our best defenders.

“And the offensive side will take care of itself, right? We’ve got elite offensive players, but the defensive side and the rebounding aspect, and I think that’s what I could bring to this team, and I think that’s what I’m going to bring. So whenever the opportunity, whenever my name is called, I’ll be ready.”

With those two in particular, Schroder has a significant experience edge, while Tyson has the size and versatility advantage.

For the Toronto series, it seems like the 23-year-old forward is the logical choice. Cleveland is going to need to throw different looks at a sizzling Brandon Ingram, RJ Barrett, and even Scottie Barnes. Schroder doesn’t fit that bill positionally the way Tyson does. If he gets the nod, it’ll probably be somewhere between 14 and 18 minutes a night. If he delivers early, he could leapfrog a teammate or two for more court time.

Cavs head coach Kenny Atkinson keeps an open mind

That is the conventional thought, but anybody who’s followed Atkinson knows that he’s anything but conventional, so minutes are anything but guaranteed to players who haven’t quite been to the dance.

“I think the conversation with the guys with little to no experience is to be ready for all scenarios and then to be ready to play your role,” Atkinson said. “And it’s important for me and the coaching staff to have those conversations with those players with little or no experience. You have to define that role for them and what it looks like.

“And each series it changes, right? I was thinking of Max last year. Like, his task was to pick up [Tyler] Herro in the first round, then [Tyrese] Haliburton, right? So it really depends. It depends on the matchup, but you have to have those conversations with the younger guys, with guys with less experience.”

The Cavs should have a good idea of who will be playing by now, even if the specific combinations still aren’t settled. Depth is a good problem to have at this time of the year, and it’ll be on Atkinson and his staff to push the right buttons.

“The hard one is the end of Game 1,” Atkinson said. “You’re going to have probably three, four people to choose from, I would think. You guys are going to say, “Why didn’t you play this guy?” So we’ve got to make those decisions, we’ve got to make the right decisions under pressure.”

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