Patriots’ fatal flaw Broncos can expose in AFC Championship Game

For the third time since 2013, the Denver Broncos and New England Patriots will meet each other in the 2026 AFC Championship Game. While MVP hopeful Drake Maye will lead the Patriots, the Broncos will be without Bo Nix, who suffered a broken ankle in Denver’s Divisional Round win over the Buffalo Bills.

Nix’s injury has dominated headlines throughout the week, but the Broncos will not let fans write them off just yet. The Patriots are unsurprisingly favored to beat a shorthanded Denver team, but the spread is still under a touchdown, indicating Vegas oddsmakers still expect a close game.

Without Nix, Jarrett Stidham is slated to make his first start of the year in the biggest game of the season. Stidham, a former Patriots draft pick, has only started four games in his seven-year career.

The Broncos need to get creative to beat the streaking Patriots without Nix under center. Fortunately, that is exactly what Sean Payton built his career on.

Denver will only go as far as Payton and Stidham can take it, but a win over the Patriots will need to be done on defense. The Broncos’ defense has carried them all season long and will hold the key to their victory on Saturday.

Broncos can expose Patriots’ struggle to protect Drake Maye

After dominating all season, the Broncos’ defense faltered against the Bills. While they forced five turnovers, which proved key to their victory, they still allowed 466 total yards and 30 points, and failed to force Buffalo into a single punt.

Instead, it was Nix who nearly single-handedly willed his team to victory. The second-year Oregon alum threw for 279 passing yards and three touchdowns while also leading the team in rushing.

If the Broncos are going to pull off another upset without Nix, their defense will have to be much better against the Patriots. Specifically, Denver will need to generate constant pressure on Drake Maye, which has been an issue for New England all season.

Despite dominating for most of the year, the Patriots struggled to keep a clean pocket for Maye, who absorbed the fourth-most sacks in the regular season. New England’s 9.4 percent sack rate was the sixth-worst in the NFL, leading to the MVP candidate taking 47 sacks. Only Justin Herbert, Geno Smith and Cam Ward were taken down more in the regular season.

Those issues have persisted in the postseason. Maye has already been sacked 10 times in the Patriots’ two playoff games, the most of any quarterback through the first two rounds.

Arguably nooffensive lineman has struggled in the playoffs more than rookie left tackle Will Campbell, who has been targeted by opposing offenses since his return from injury. Campbell has allowed a team-high nine pressures in the Patriots’ last two games, according to Pro Football Focus.

Left guard Jared Wilson has also struggled, ceding six pressures in the Wild Card win over the Los Angeles Chargers. Campbell will receive most of the attention, but Wilson could be another point of attack for the Broncos.

No team is better at applying pressure than the Broncos

No team has been better at getting to opposing quarterbacks than the Broncos, who led the league with 68 sacks in the regular season. Denver was the only team to have four players with seven or more sacks on the year.

With Nik Bonitto, Zach Allen, John Franklin-Myers and Jonathan Cooper all healthy, no team has more pass-rushers capable of consistently winning one-on-one matchups. Conversely, the Patriots’ offensive line has struggled in one-on-one blocking all year and has relied on chipping from tight ends and running backs to avoid singular matchups.

Expect Broncos defensive coordinator Vance Joseph to mix up his rotation and bring pressure all night long, particularly against Campbell. Bonitto tends to line up across opposing left tackles the majority of the time and should have a big game in the AFC Championship Game.

While the Broncos’ defense struggled to contain Josh Allen in the Divisional Round, they sacked him three times. Their constant pressure led to several other havoc-induced mistakes, including Allen’s four turnovers, one of which was a strip sack.

Maye did not make mistakes often in the regular season, but he has thrown an interception in each of New England’s first two playoff games. He has also lost three fumbles in the postseason, giving him five turnovers in the Patriots’ last two victories.

If the Broncos are going to make the Super Bowl, Stidham needs to have the game of his life. But even more importantly, Denver’s defense has to do what it has done best all year and force Maye into costly mistakes.

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