Ole Miss football bold predictions for Fiesta Bowl CFP semifinal against Miami

Ole Miss has not won a national championship since Johnny Vaught led them to a 10-0 season and a national title in 1962. It was long enough ago that they defeated Southwest Conference opponent Arkansas in the Sugar Bowl, and Tulane was an SEC rival. They are now one game away from getting to play for the College Football Playoff National Championship, but first, the team must defeat Miami.

Ole Miss had a solid run to the playoffs. They opened up 6-0 before a loss to Georgia. They then finished with five straight wins to earn a spot in the CFP and the 6th seed. That would give them a first-round rematch against Tulane, and they handled that game with ease, winning 41-10. This would lead to another rematch for Ole Miss, as they faced Georgia in the CFP Quarterfinal at the Sugar Bowl. Ole Miss made the comeback and won the game 39-34. The offense has been stellar for the Rebels. They have scored 80 total points in the first two rounds of the playoffs and have scored 30 or more points in eight straight games.

Meanwhile, Miami got a playoff spot despite not playing for the ACC Championship, and Duke not making the playoffs as the conference champion. They would be the only team from the conference to earn a berth. For Miami, it has been about the defense. They allowed just three points to Texas Tech and then just 14 points to Ohio State. They have not given up more than 17 points in six straight games. Something has to give in this game between the Ole Miss offense and the Miami defense.

The defense forces a Carson Beck mistake

Much is going to be made of the Miami defense, but the Ole Miss defense has been great this year as well.  They are 39th in opponent points per game while sitting 46th in opponent yards per game. Further, they are 39th against the pass, but just 66th against the run. Meanwhile, Miami has also been solid on offense. They are 26th in points per game while sitting 50th in yards per game. The Hurricanes have been average on the ground, sitting 69th in the running department, but they are 44th in passing.

Carson Beck has been solid this year, passing for 3,313 yards with 27 touchdowns. Still, he has thrown 10 interceptions this year, and many of them in backbreaking situations. Beck threw four picks against Louisville, including one that sealed the victory for Louisville. He threw another two against SMU, including one in overtime. When Miami has lost this year, Beck has been a major reason why. Miami is 68th in the nation in the percentage of dropbacks that result in interceptions. Ole Miss has not been amazing at forcing interceptions, but they do force 1.1 takeaways per game.

Wydett Williams Jr. could be the man who makes the big play, something he has done already this year. He has eight pass breakups with three interceptions and a fumble recovery. He also has 11 tackles in the playoffs so far in the playoffs. Meanwhile, Suntarine Perkins has also been great from his linebacker position. He has three sacks, five pass breakups, an interception, three forced fumbles, and two fumble recoveries. When Miami defeated Ohio State, it was turnovers that won them the game, including a pick-six of Julian Sayin. This time, it will be turnovers that doom them.

Trinidad Chambliss and Kewan Lacy cut through the Hurricanes’ defense

The Miami defense has been great this year. They are fourth in opponent points per game while sitting tenth in opponent yards per game. They are fourth against the run while sitting 44th against the pass. Miami has given up just 17 points in the two playoff games so far, holding Texas A&M to three and Ohio State to 14. Neither of those offensive units has been as good as Ole Miss this year.

Ole Miss is ninth in points per game and second in yards per game. Meanwhile, Texas A&M is 18th in points per game and 19th in yards, while Ohio State is 26th in points and 36th in yards. The Rebels are also 31st in rushing yards per game and fourth in passing yards, both of which rank better than the Hurricanes’ prior two opponents.

Kewan Lacy, who just recommitted to Ole Miss, has been stellar this year. He has run for 1,464 yards and 23 touchdowns so far this season. Meanwhile, he has been stellar in recent weeks. In the last four games, he has run for 552 yards and found the end zone seven times. He is coming off a 98-yard and two-touchdown performance against Georgia.

Meanwhile, Trinidad Chambliss has also been great. Chambliss has passed for 3,660 yards and 21 touchdowns so far this campaign. He has also run for 520 yards and found the end zone eight times. So far in the playoffs, he has 644 yards with three scores, while running for 50 yards and another two touchdowns. The combination of Chambliss and Lacy has been cutting through defensive units, and will do so again in this game. They will account for at least three touchdowns in this game.

Will 24 points be enough? 

Ole Miss has scored 24 or more points in every game this season. The low point for the offense was against Washington State, as the team came off a bye and had Georgia on the road the next week, followed by a road trip to Oklahoma. It may have been a look-ahead spot to the Rebels, and they have scored 30 or more points in every other game, including eight straight. Georgia was 12th in the nation in opponent points per game this year, but the Rebels averaged 37 points per game against the Bulldogs. Meanwhile, Oklahoma was seventh in points per game and eighth in opponent yards per game. Ole Miss put up 431 yards of offense and 34 points against the Sooners.

Both of those defensive units are just behind Miami, but even if the Hurricanes are ten points better on defense than Georgia and Oklahoma, this would still place Ole Miss scoring 24 points. Miami has given up 24 or more points just three times all year. One was the first game of the season against Notre Dame, in which Miami won 27-24. Meanwhile, the other two are the losses to Louisville and SMU. When Ole Miss gets to 24 points, it will secure the win and a spot in the National Championship.

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