NFL playoff picture: What does Panthers-Bucs mean for NFC standings in Week 18

Jan 3, 2026 - 19:30

The Carolina Panthers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers face off in a Week 18 matchup that is mostly do-or-die, but not exactly due to reasons we’ll describe below. The NFC South has been a mess this year, so it’s no surprise that there is an odd scenario in the mix for the two teams competing for the division title.

The Panthers-Bucs matchup is taking place in Tampa and will kick off at 4:30 p.m. ET on Saturday. It’s the first game of the final week of the 2025-26 NFL regular season, and it should be a fun one. These two squads faced off two weeks ago and the Panthers won on a game-winning field goal with 2:20 left in the fourth quarter. That moved Carolina into first place, where they’ve remained since.

The Bucs have lost four straight and seven of their last eight games while the Panthers have alternated wins and losses after a three-game win streak in October.

Panthers vs. Buccaneers playoff picture

This is not quite a loser-leaves-town matchup. If the Panthers win, they’re in the playoffs and the Bucs are done for the season. Carolina will have finished two games up on Tampa Bay to win the division free and clear. However, if the Bucs win, we won’t know the division champion until Sunday afternoon.

If the Bucs win, they’ll be tied with the Panthers in first place. If the Atlanta Falcons lose to the New Orleans Saints on Sunday, the Bucs win the division because they claim the common games tiebreaker over the Panthers. For a two-team tie, the first tiebreaker is head-to-head, the second tiebreaker is divisional record, and the third tiebreaker is common games. The Bucs and Panthers split the head-to-head series and a Tampa win would even them on divisional record. Tampa has the common games advantage.

If the Falcons beat the Saints on Sunday, the Panthers win the division because of the head-to-head tiebreaker. For a three-team tie, the first tiebreaker is overall head-to-head record for the three teams. In this instance, the Panthers would be 3-1 (2-0 vs. Falcons, 1-1 vs. Bucs), the Bucs would be 2-2 (1-1 vs. Panthers, 1-1 vs. Falcons), and the Falcons would be 1-3 (1-1 vs. Bucs, 0-2 vs. Panthers). Carolina would claim the division because of that 3-1 overall head-to-head record.

For those interested, the Falcons are a field goal favorite at home against the Saints.