NFL playoff picture: What does Broncos-Chiefs mean for AFC standings in Week 17

When the NFL schedule makers sat down to craft the Christmas slate of games, they likely envisioned the clash between the Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs as a battle for the AFC West title.

In a way, they got it right.

While the Chiefs have already been eliminated from playoff contention, the Broncos can wrap up their first AFC West title since 2015 with a win tonight, and a little bit of help from the Houston Texans on Saturday. In addition, Denver can also secure the No. 1 seed in the AFC, but they will need a little more help here in Week 17 to clinch the top seed.

Denver Broncos playoff picture

Let’s start with the AFC West title. Denver can clinch the division title this week, officially bringing to an end the Chiefs’ reign atop the division. With a win over the Chiefs on Christmas night, and a Los Angeles Chargers loss or tie against the Houston Texans on Saturday, the Broncos are AFC West champions.

Denver can also clinch the AFC West with a tie against the Chiefs, provided the Chargers lose to the Texans.

In addition, Denver can also wrap up the No. 1 seed in the AFC this week, and the lone bye week in the AFC playoffs.

But they would need a lot of help to get that done.

First, the Broncos would need to win against the Chiefs on Thursday night. Then, the Broncos would need the New England Patriots to lose to the New York Jets, the Chargers to lose or tie against the Texans, the Jacksonville Jaguars to lose or tie against the Indianapolis Colts, and the Buffalo Bills to lose or tie against the Philadelphia Eagles.

Tiebreaker implications

With the Chiefs already eliminated from the playoffs, this game will not have any tiebreaker implications for the Chiefs and Broncos directly.

But it could play a role for the Broncos when it comes to seeding, in a very narrow scenario.

Looking at the AFC West, the Broncos lead the division with a 12-3 record, while the Chargers are in second place with an 11-4 record. If Denver beats the Chiefs and the Chargers beat the Texans on Saturday, the two teams will meet in Week 18 with the division title up for grabs.

Why? Because the Chargers against Denver earlier this season, and another win in Week 18 in this scenario, would see the two teams finish at 13-4. The first tiebreaker in a division is head-to-head record, which woudl give the Chargers the AFC West title.

Then the Broncos would be seeded somewhere from No. 5 to No. 7, depending on how the Bills finish, who could also end the year with a 13-4 record. If, again in this scenario, the Bills finish with the same 13-4 record as Denver, the tiebreaker will be conference record. Right now, Buffalo is at 8-3, and they have one AFC game remaining so they would finish at 9-3 in this scenario.

Denver right now has a 7-3 record in AFC games, and would finish at 8-4 in this scenario, dropping them behind the Bills.

Again, this is a very specific hypothetical, but this game could matter in a tiebreaker scenario.