NFL playoff picture: How the Jaguars can clinch a playoff berth after win over Broncos in Week 16

Monday update: The Jaguars officially clinched a playoff berth on Monday. The Colts loss to the 49ers clinched playoff berths for the Jaguars, Chargers, and Bills. Jacksonville leads the AFC South and has more they want to accomplish, but they at least know they are for sure headed to the playoffs.

Sunday result: The Jaguars scored a huge victory by downing the Broncos 34-20 on Sunday. With that result, the Jags can officially clinch a playoff berth with a Colts loss on Monday Night Football. The added bonus for Jacksonville is that it has now entered the race for the No. 1 seed in the AFC, as it now sits just a game behind Denver with the tiebreaker in its back pocket.

One of the most fascinating matchups in Week 16 of the 2025 NFL season takes place in the late-afternoon window on Sunday, when the 12-2 Denver Broncos host the 10-4 Jacksonville Jaguars.

While the Broncos have already clinched a playoff spot, the Jaguars can join them in the postseason with a win over Denver, and a little bit of help from around the rest of the league.

Let’s dive into Jacksonville’s playoff-clinching scenarios for Week 16.

Jaguars playoff berth clinching scenarios

Jacksonville has four different paths to locking up a playoff spot in Week 16, but they do not control their destiny. At least, not yet. The Jaguars will need a little help from around the league if they are to punch their ticket this weekend.

The most likely path? That involves a win over the Broncos, coupled with an Indianapolis Colts loss or tie against the San Francisco 49ers on Monday Night Football.

Jacksonville can also clinch a playoff spot with a win over Denver, and a Houston Texans loss or tie against the Las Vegas Raiders. However, Houston is a heavy favorite in that game.

The Jaguars also have two ways they can clinch a playoff spot with a tie against the Broncos. In the first, a tie against Denver coupled with a Colts loss to the 49ers gets the Jaguars into the postseason.

In the second, a Jaguars tie paired with a Colts tie and a Houston loss clinches a playoff spot for Jacksonville.

It is important to note that the Jaguars cannot clinch the AFC South this week, as the Texans are just a game behind in the division at 9-5.

AFC standings entering Week 16

Here is the full AFC picture entering Week 16:

1. Denver Broncos (12-2) – x
2. New England Patriots (11-3)
3. Jacksonville Jaguars (10-4)
4. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6)
5. Los Angeles Chargers (10-4)
6. Buffalo Bills (10-4)
7. Houston Texans (9-5)
8. Indianapolis Colts (8-6)
9. Baltimore Ravens (7-7)
10. Kansas City Chiefs (6-8) – e
11. Miami Dolphins (6-8) – e
12. Cincinnati Bengals (4-10) – e
13. New York Jets (3-11) – e
14. Cleveland Browns (3-11) – e
15. Las Vegas Raiders (2-12) – e
16. Tennessee Titans (2-12) – e

x – Team has clinched a playoff spot
e – Team has been eliminated from playoff contention

AFC South standings entering Week 16

Here are the AFC South standings entering Week 16:

1. Jacksonville Jaguars (10-4)
2. Houston Texans (9-5)
3. Indianapolis Colts (8-6)
4. Tennessee Titans (2-12) – e