NFL Playoff Picture: Bears, Patriots, and Broncos clinch division titles in Week 17

One week remains, two playoff spots are up for grabs, and both No. 1 seeds have yet to be determined.

That is the state of play with just one game left before the calendar officially flips to Week 18 of the 2025 NFL season.

Week 17 did see both the Chicago Bears, the Denver Broncos, and the New England Patriots clinch their respective division titles, while the Green Bay Packers and the Houston Texans booked their spots in the postseason. Let’s break down how Week 17 impacted the NFL Playoff picture.

NFC Playoff Picture

Here are the current NFC playoff standings, with one week remaining in the season:

1. Seattle Seahawks (13-3) – x
2. Chicago Bears (11-5) – xy
3. Philadelphia Eagles (10-5) – xy
4. Carolina Panthers (8-8)
5. San Francisco 49ers (12-4) – x
6. Los Angeles Rams (11-4) – x
7. Green Bay Packers (9-6-1) – x
8. Minnesota Vikings (8-8) – e
9. Detroit Lions (8-8) – e
10. Dallas Cowboys (7-8-1) – e
11. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9)
12. Atlanta Falcons (6-9) – e
13. New Orleans Saints (6-10) – e
14. Washington Commanders (4-12) – e
15. Arizona Cardinals (3-13) – e
16. New York Giants (2-13) – e

x – Team has clinched a playoff spot
y – Team has clinched the division title
e – Team has been eliminated from playoff contention

Only one spot remains.

We can start at the No. 7 spot. The Green Bay Packers locked up a playoff spot when the Detroit Lions lost on Christmas Day, but with their own loss on Saturday night to the Baltimore Ravens, the Packers are locked into the No. 7 spot. Head coach Matt LaFleur has already indicated that Green Bay will rest “key” players in Week 18, given that the Packers cannot improve their seeding.

The NFC South will go down to Week 18, but the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Carolina Panthers is not technically for the division. Both Tampa Bay and Carolina lost on Sunday, but that opens the door to a potential three-way tie atop the division. Carolina is currently 8-8, while the Buccaneers are 7-9. A win for Tampa Bay next week would see both the Panthers and the Buccaneers finish the season at 8-9.

But the Atlanta Falcons can join them at 8-9, if they win their final two games of the season, starting tonight against the Los Angeles Rams. In a scenario where the three teams finish tied, the Panthers would win the NFC South even with a loss to the Buccaneers next week. Per the NFL’s tiebreaking procedure, the first step in a three-way tie within a division is head-to-head, defined as “best won-lost-tied percentage in games among the clubs.”

Even if they lose in Week 18 to Tampa Bay, the Panthers will be 3-1 in games against the Buccaneers and the Falcons thanks to a season sweep of Atlanta. Tampa Bay will be 2-2 in such a scenario, having split their games against Atlanta and Tampa Bay, while the Falcons will be 1-3 in those games.

So Panthers fans will be rooting for Atlanta tonight, to give Carolina a little wiggle room.

Now we can talk about Sunday Night Football. San Francisco’s win improved their record to 12-4, and while that keeps the 49ers in the No. 5 spot for now, San Francisco can win both the NFC West, and the No. 1 seed in the conference, with a win in Week 18 over Seattle.

San Francisco’s win also means that the Rams cannot win the NFC West, nor can they secure the No. 1 seed.

Chicago remains in the No. 2 spot with the loss, but they cannot win the No. 1 seed.

As things stand, here are the potential matchups for Wild Card Weekend:

• No. 7 Green Bay at No. 2 Chicago
• No. 6 Los Angeles at No. 3 Philadelphia
• No. 5 San Francisco at No. 4 Carolina

AFC Playoff Picture

Here is where things stand in the AFC, with one week remaining in the season:

1. Denver Broncos (13-3) – xy
2. New England Patriots (13-3) – xy
3. Jacksonville Jaguars (12-4) – x
4. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7)
5. Houston Texans (11-5) – x
6. Los Angeles Chargers (11-5) – x
7. Buffalo Bills (11-5) – x
8. Indianapolis Colts (8-8) – e
9. Baltimore Ravens (8-8)
10. Miami Dolphins (7-9) – e
11. Cincinnati Bengals (6-10) – e
12. Kansas City Chiefs (6-10) – e
13. Cleveland Browns (4-12) – e
14. Tennessee Titans (3-13) – e
15. New York Jets (3-13) – e
16. Las Vegas Raiders (2-13) – e

x – Team has clinched a playoff spot
y – Team has clinched the division title
e – Team has been eliminated from playoff contention

All but one spot has been clinched in the AFC.

The final spot will be decided next week, when the Baltimore Ravens square off with the Pittsburgh Steelers. The winner will take the AFC North and the final playoff spot as the No. 4 seed, while the loser will be eliminated. Pittsburgh won the previous meeting, but the winner of the Week 18 meeting will have a 4-2 record in the division, clinching the second tiebreaker and the AFC North title.

If the game between Baltimore and Pittsburgh finishes in a tie, Pittsburgh wins the division thanks to their win over Baltimore earlier this year.

Looking at the top of the conference, the No. 1 seed remains up for grabs between the New England Patriots and the Denver Broncos. Denver will clinch the No. 1 seed with a win, and can clinch with a loss provided New England also loses. The Broncos hold the tiebreaker over the Patriots based on a better record in common games.

New England can only secure the No. 1 seed with a win over the Miami Dolphins, and a Broncos loss to the Los Angeles Chargers. But the Patriots did clinch the division, with Buffalo’s loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. More on the Bills in a moment.

The AFC South title remains up for grabs as well, with the 12-4 Jacksonville Jaguars one game ahead of the 11-5 Houston Texans. Both teams are in the playoffs, but the Jaguars will clinch the division title and the No. 3 seed with a win over the Tennessee Titans, or a Texans’ loss or tie against the Indianapolis Colts.

Houston will win the AFC South if they win and the Jaguars lose.

As things stand right now, the Texans are the No. 5 seed. While the Texans, Bills, and Chargers are all 11-5, Houston defeated the Bills earlier this season, and their win over the Chargers on Saturday gives them a season sweep of Buffalo and Los Angeles. Then between the Chargers and the Bills, Los Angeles wins the tiebreaker thanks to a better record in games against common opponents.

Here is what the Wild Card round would look like should these standings carry over into the playoffs:

• No. 7 Buffalo at No. 2 New England
• No. 6 Los Angeles at No. 3 Jacksonville
• No. 5 Houston at No. 4 Pittsburgh