NBA Christmas catchup: Contenders, best rookies, trade candidates, tank race, and more

The old adage is that the NBA season doesn’t really start until Christmas. While it’s a handy framework for not overreacting to everything you see early in the season, it also clashes with the idea that the end of the regular season also isn’t very important as most teams position themselves to tank for draft position or rest starters ahead of the playoffs. The NBA regular season is an eternal 82 games, and the only ones that matter are between Christmas and the All-Star break? It’s almost like the league desperately needs to shorten the season.

The NBA has an awesome five-game slate on deck for Christmas day, but the reality is that those just tuning in now have already missed a lot of great basketball. The start of the 2025-26 regular season has laid the foundation for a thrilling conclusion to the year, starting with the trade deadline, then the All-Star Game, then the championship chase, and finally the lottery drawing ahead of a spectacular 2026 NBA Draft class.

If you’ve been too busy watching football to keep up with the NBA so far, here’s what you need to know.

The NBA championship chase has a clear contender class

Here’s my tier list of contenders for the 2026 NBA championship race:

Tier 1

• Oklahoma City Thunder: The reigning champion Thunder enter Christmas day in position become the third team in league history to win at least 70 games, and they could challenge the 2017 Warriors’ all-time wins record (73), too. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander might be the frontrunner to win MVP again, Chet Holmgren is playing at an All-NBA level, Jalen Williams is back in the lineup after an early season wrist injury, and breakout sophomore Ajay Mitchell has given the Thunder another young stud off the bench. No team has won back-to-back titles since the 2017-2018 Warriors, but the Thunder will be the favorites to do entering the playoffs by a pretty wide margin.

Tier 2

• Denver Nuggets: The Nuggets pushed OKC to a Game 7 in the second round last season, and the roster is even better this year. Nikola Jokic is still the best player in the world, and he finally has a chance to have his first All-Star teammate with the way Jamal Murray is playing right now. Aaron Gordon and Christian Braun have been out of the starting lineup with injuries, but both should return soon, and Gordon in particular was playing at an exceptional level before the injury. While Denver’s big free agent addition Cam Johnson has an a slow start, the remade bench has been a big upgrade, with Jonas Valanciunas finally stabilizing lineups when Jokic needs a rest.
• San Antonio Spurs: The NBA has never seen anything like Victor Wembanyama before. The 7’5 Frenchman is the best defensive player in the league, and his diverse offensive package is more effective than ever in his third season with a mix of three-pointers, crossovers, and dominant rim scoring. The biggest reason the Spurs are bound for their first playoff trip of the Wemby era is because of how improved the supporting cast is. De’Aaron Fox is crushing it as San Antonio’s lead guard and second banana, Stephon Castle is much improved from his Rookie of the Year season, and No. 2 overall pick Dylan Harper is an instant impact rookie with an All-Star future. The Spurs are going to be a force for years to come around Wemby, and it’s been very fun watching them take the leap this season.
• New York Knicks: The Knicks’ NBA Cup title proved that they’re the heavy favorite to win the East, and could be a top-3 contender for the real championship by end of the season. Jalen Brunson is a true superstar at point guard, and Karl-Anthony Towns’ three-point shooting and OG Anunoby’s dunks-and-threes offensive skill plus dominant defense gives him two terrific co-stars. Mikal Bridges might be the most overqualified fourth option in the league, and Mitchel Robinson is a game-changing talent as an offensive rebounder and rim protector. The Knicks face questions defensively, but they can score with anyone.
• Houston Rockets: The Rockets are the weirdest team among the current lot of contenders. Houston is tracking as one of the greatest offensive rebounding teams ever, with Steven Adams leading a punishing attack on the offensive glass. Turkish big man Alperen Sengun is playing at an All-NBA level in his fifth-year, Kevin Durant is still a bucket and a problem at age-37, and former No. 3 overall pick Reed Sheppard is fully breaking out in his second year. The Rockets are the most physical team in the league, and they’re going to be a huge pain in the ass to play against even if their games aren’t always pretty.

My Tier 3 contenders would be the Detroit Pistons, Los Angeles Lakers, and Minnesota Timberwolves.

The NBA tank race is shaping up ahead of a stacked 2026 NBA Draft class

There are three players who could potentially go No. 1 overall in the 2026 NBA Draft with Duke’s Cameron Boozer, BYU’s A.J. Dybantsa, and Kansas’ Darryn Peterson all looking like fantastic long-term prospects. Read our latest 2026 NBA Draft mock draft here. There are going to be a lot of teams tanking with a draft class this loaded, and here the current “front-runners” for the top pick:

• Washington Wizards: The worst team in the NBA, desperately needs top-3 lottery luck this year.
• Indiana Pacers: Tyrese Haliburton’s torn Achilles took the Pacers from the NBA Finals to the cellar, but adding a top pick would provide a feel-good ending to their gap year.
• Sacramento Kings: The Kings aren’t tanking; they’re just really bad. Somehow reuniting Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan in the West didn’t work (this is my sarcasm font), and now another full-blown fire-sale/rebuild is likely on the way.
• Oklahoma City Thunder (via Clippers): OKC’s Paul George trade keeps paying off. The Clippers have been awful this year, and the Thunder own their unprotected first-round pick and also have swap rights next year. It sure feels like OKC could be on the brink of a super dynasty.
• Atlanta Hawks (via Pelicans): The Derik Queen trade will be debated forever, but at least he’s kicking ass and New Orleans is playing much better after installing James Borrego as head coach.
• Brooklyn Nets: Jordi Fernandez is too good of a head coach to fully tank. Trading the red hot Michael Porter Jr. would help.
• Charlotte Hornets: Still bad, but not quite as hopeless as usual thanks to a loaded rookie class led by No. 4 pick Kon Knueppel.

Trade deadline landscape

The NBA trade deadline is Feb. 5. Here’s our list of the biggest names on the trade market, including Dallas’ Anthony Davis, New Orleans’ Zion Williamson, Atlanta’s Trae Young, Sacramento’s Domantas Sabonis, and Memphis’ Ja Morant. Here are some other players who could be traded for the right price at the deadline:

• James Harden, G, Los Angeles Clippers: If the Clippers decide their lost season can’t be salvaged, trading Harden (who is having another good year) for future assets makes sense even if they don’t control their pick.
• Michael Porter Jr., F, Brooklyn Nets: MPJ is absolutely crushing it in Brooklyn with All-Star level play. His trade value will never be higher.
• Coby White, G, Chicago Bulls: White is a free agent after this year. It seems like the Bulls want to keep him, but the team just isn’t good enough so everything should be on the table.
• Collin Sexton, G, Charlotte Hornets: Sexton has had a really good season in Charlotte and could hep any contender looking for another ball handler with microwave scoring ability.
• R.J. Barrett, G, Toronto Raptors: The Raptors feel primed to make a move, and Barrett makes sense to be involved as a matching salary with scoring punch.
• Anfernee Simons, G, Boston Celtics: The Celtics will likely try to duck the luxury tax, and Simons is probably the guy they will look to trade.

The NBA rookie class is killing it

Sharp evaluators always knew that 2025 and 2026 were the NBA draft classes non-contenders should want to be in. Here’s how I’d rank the league’s best rookies so far:

• 1. Cooper Flagg, F, Mavericks: Flagg will go down as the best player from this class. He’s the youngest player in the NBA and is living up to every ounce of hype so far. Read my feature on the making of Flagg as the NBA’s next superstar.
• 2. Kon Knueppel, G, Hornets: The No. 4 pick is so much more than a lights-out shooter. He feels like the new face of the franchise in Charlotte.
• 3. Derik Queen, C/F, Pelicans: A master driver and scorer at 6’10, 250 pounds. The trade could have been better for New Orleans, but Queen is a great long-term building block.
• 4. Dylan Harper, G, Spurs: I still think Harper is going down as the second best player in this draft class. He’s an incredible driver and below-the-rim finisher who will become Victor Wembanyama’s top sidekick in short order.
• 5. Jeremiah Fears, G, Pelicans: Awesome combination of handle and speed for one of the youngest guards in the league. His shooting progression is encouraging.

NBA Christmas day games, re-ranked

I ranked the NBA Christmas day games when they were released in Aug. Here’s the three you really need to watch:

1. San Antonio Spurs at Oklahoma City Thunder: The NBA Cup semifinal matchup between these two teams (which resulted in OKC’s second loss of the year) was absolute cinema. This is going to be the best rivalry in the NBA moving forward.
2. Minnesota Timberwolves at Denver Nuggets: The Wolves are on fire right now, and the Nuggets still look like a championship contender around Nikola Jokic. These games are always so good, and this one will be no exception.
3. Houston Rockets at Los Angeles Lakers: Luka, LeBron, and All-Star to be Austin Reaves vs. the Rockets’ bully ball lineup. I’m in.

The conclusion of this NBA season should be special

The Thunder are going for back-to-back titles, but the West is full of worthy challengers. I can’t wait to see Victor Wembanyama’s first playoff run, Nikola Jokic giving it everything he’s got, and a wide open East race that runs through the Knicks. The stakes for the 2026 draft lottery are almost as high.

Get locked in with the NBA now, because this fantastic season is only going to keep getting better.