Monaco Grand Prix betting tips: Predictions and expert advice for F1 weekend 

Kimi Antonelli of Mercedes has built a 43-point lead in the F1 World Drivers’ Championship by winning four races in a row. But the teenage sensation is not favourite to pick up his first Monaco Grand Prix win around the streets of Monte Carlo on Sunday.

Antonelli raced clear in the standings when team-mate George Russell stopped due to a battery failure at the Canadian Grand Prix two weeks ago, but both Silver Arrows drivers face a challenge to keep their run of success going.

Ferrari are favoured in the market to get their first win of the season with Charles Leclerc heading the odds list at 2/1.

Lando Norris won the iconic event for McLaren on his way to the world title last season and he is an 11/2 chance in an open field for a repeat success.

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Monaco Grand Prix betting tips

• Lewis Hamilton each-way @ 9/2
• Isack Hadjar top-six finish @ 11/4
• Esteban Ocon points finish @ 5/2

Hamilton value for first Ferrari victory

Lewis Hamilton finally looks to be enjoying life at Ferrari after a tough first season with the Italian team and he is a decent value bet to record the fourth Monaco success of his career.

Hamilton posted his best ever Grand Prix result for Ferrari (he won the sprint race in China last season) when chasing down Max Verstappen to take second place in Montreal and it’s a surprise to see him at more than twice the price of his team-mate given that Leclerc had a frustrating weekend in Canada.

The seven-time world champion has finished ahead of Leclerc in three of the five races this season and there are only three points between them in the standings, so backing the British driver is preferred.

Mercedes have not won in Monaco since 2019, with three Red Bull wins and one each for Ferrari and McLaren since then, and neither Russell nor Antonelli has yet shown any particular liking for the track. In fact, Russell has never finished higher than fifth there while Antonelli’s first Monaco bid was scuppered by a big crash in qualifying.

The power advantage Mercedes enjoy at most tracks doesn’t count for much at the slowest circuit on the calendar and Ferrari’s smaller turbocharger, which helps them make fast starts, should be an advantage around the tight track.

The McLarens of Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri could well be in the mix for a podium finish again. They finished first and third last season with Leclerc between them.

Their weekend in Canada ended badly after they started the race on intermediate tyres but it’s worth remembering that they had both been in the top four in the sprint race and on the grid.

Hadjar has a chance to shine

Isack Hadjar registered his first top-six finish since being promoted to the Red Bull team this season when he finished fifth in Canada. And while he benefited from McLaren’s misfortunes on that occasion, he can get in the mix for a similar placing in Monte Carlo.

Hadjar has shown promise in Monaco, winning a race there in his Formula Regional European Championship days and finishing second in the 2024 Formula 2 sprint race.

The promising French driver confirmed his liking for the historic track when qualifying sixth and finishing in the same position in his first F1 race there for the Racing Bulls team last season and he can build on his improved effort in Montreal.

Ocon can impress in Monaco

Another Frenchman to watch this weekend is Esteban Ocon. The Haas driver earned one of his four career podium finishes in Monaco for Alpine in 2023, which was the third time he had finished in the points at the track.

Ocon also went well there last season, finishing seventh in his first season with his current Haas team, which was his joint-second best result of the campaign.

Haas benefits from the Ferrari engine which could be a major help in Monaco, so, while Ocon has managed only one point so far this season, he is worth backing to add to his tally this week.

• Lewis Hamilton each-way @ 9/2
• Isack Hadjar top-six finish @ 11/4
• Esteban Ocon points finish @ 5/2

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