Mario Bautista vs. Vinicius Oliveira prediction, odds, pick for UFC Vegas 113

It’s time for our final betting prediction and pick for UFC Vegas 113 as fans will be treated to a headlining bout in the Bantamweight (135) Division. No. 9 Mario Bautista will take on No. 11 Vinicius Oliveira of Brazil in a high-stakes bout to determine rankings. Check our UFC odds series for the Bautista-Oliveira prediction and pick.

Mario Bautista (16-3) is 10-3 since joining the UFC in 2019. Previously riding an eight-fight unbeaten streak, Bautista fell short his last time out against top-ranked Umar Nurmagomedov. He looks to bounce back as the betting favorite here, standing 5-foot-9 with a 72-inch reach.

Vinicius Oliveira (23-3) is a perfect 4-0 through his first UFC bouts since 2024. After notching a flying-knee knockout in his UFC debut, he’s gone on to win his next three fights all by unanimous decision. He hopes to remain undefeated and continue climbing the rankings, standing 5-foot-9 with a 70.5-inch reach.

Here are the UFC Vegas 113 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC Vegas 113 Odds: Mario Bautista-Vinicius Oliveira Odds

Mario Bautista: -142

Vinicius Oliveira: +120

Over 4.5 rounds: +114

Under 4.5 rounds: -145

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Why Mario Bautista Will Win

• Last Fight: (L) Umar Nurmagomedov – U DEC
• Last 5: 4-1
• Finishes: 3 KO/TKO, 6 SUB

Mario Bautista turned in a valiant performance against an elite talent like Umar Nurmagomedov, but it simply wasn’t enough to deter 11 landed takedowns from the world-class grappler. Bautista is typically solid from there with a 55% takedown defense rate, but falling behind in the striking numbers early hurt him greatly and he couldn’t find his rhythm while continuously having to get back to his feet. This time around, expect a much more active showing in the striking out of Bautista.

Facing another willing striker in Oliveira, Bautista should be able to get back to the techniques that got him here in the first place. He’s very skilled as a boxer and does his best work when slipping out of range and countering. He’s very powerful for this division and his flush shots have been able to wobble durable fighters in the past.

Bautista also has the benefit of fighting better competition up to this point and having to work against a number of differing fighting styles. Vinicius Oliveira is a very unorthodox and unpredictable striker, so Bautista will have to counter him with patience and consistency when throwing his offense. The right amount of defense will also frustrate Oliveira and coax him into over-extending on his shots.

Why Vinicius Oliveira Will Win

• Last Fight: (W) Kyler Phillips – U DEC
• Last 5: 5-0
• Finishes: 16 KO/TKO, 2 SUB

Vinivius Oliveira has been one of the more exciting prospects this Bantamweight Division has seen in quite some time, making a huge impression with his viral flying-knee knockout. Since then, Oliveira has turned in three complete performances and proved that he can fight consistently over the course of three rounds. His energy remains high throughout the entire fight and he’ll constantly be a threat with flying knees, spinning elbows, and anything else he’s saving in his bag for this fight.

Oliveira has yet to meet serious resistance or adversity in the UFC, but he’s bound to see some in this fight given Bautista’s technical and accurate boxing. It’ll be interesting to see how he handles the damage early on, but Oliveira has been typically durable with just three knockout losses on his career. With 16 knockout wins, he’s certainly confident that he’ll make his opponent fold before he does.

Oliveira will be looking to gauge his front leg kick early and he’s been successful with it in the past. He’s very active in chopping the legs with low calf kicks, so don’t be surprised if he uses that tactic early in trying to hinder the movement of Bautista. Either way, we can expect mixed attacks to all three levels once Oliveira finds his striking rhythm.

Final Mario Bautista-Vinicius Oliveira Prediction & Pick

This should be a fun main event as both fighters are two of the more impactful strikers in this division. No one has been able to figure out Vinicius Oliveira’s unorthodox striking style up to this point and we can expect to see a number of wild and chaotic exchanges initiated by him.

Mario Bautista is much more balanced with his striking and given all the different looks he’s seen throughout this division, he’ll be patient in allowing Oliveira to make his own mistakes where he can capitalize. The last loss took a lot out of him and we can expect Bautista to be very motivated in getting back to fighting the top-ranked in the division.

For our final pick, we’re going to roll with Mario Bautista to edge a close victory on the scorecards. This is Oliveira’s first five-round spot and Bautista’s output is much better suited for this type of environment. Lets side with the betting favorite and total over in this one.

Final Mario Bautista-Vinicius Oliveira Prediction & Pick: Mario Bautista (-142); OVER 4.5 Rounds (+114)

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