March Madness: Easiest, hardest roads to 2026 Final Four

March Madness is here and the bracket is out! While the top teams in the nation didn’t have to sweat out whether they would be in the field on Selection Sunday, they would have been dialed into the bracket reveal to see what their path to a potential Final Four run looks like.

In any somewhat random situation like this one, some teams are going to get the short end of the stick and other teams are going to love their path. Who won this draw among the top teams vying for a national title, and who will be unhappy with the gauntlet in front of him?

Easy road: Arizona

Arizona is the top seed in the West Region and the No. 2 overall seed, and the Wildcats have to be happy with their draw. Tommy Lloyd and company will have to beat either Villanova or Utah State in the second round after dispatching Long Island, which should be very manageable. Villanova has only beaten one NCAA Tournament team this season, and Utah State has the poor reputation of constant Mountain West tournament failure on its back.

In the Sweet 16, Arizona is very likely going to take on either Wisconsin or Arkansas. While both of those teams have superstar guards and are capable of scoring a ton of points, but neither has the size nor the depth to contend with Arizona’s massive front court and deep bench. While it might be close, Tommy Lloyd and company should find themselves in the Elite Eight.

The bottom half of the West Region includes teams like Purdue, Gonzaga and BYU. BYU shouldn’t be much of a threat after the injury to Richie Saunders, and the Wildcats already swept the season series over Kevin Young’s group. Purdue is hot after winning the Big Ten title and has some quality front court players to compete with Arizona, but struggled near the end of the regular season and is relatively weak compared to the other No. 2 seeds. Gonzaga is always dangerous, but this version of Mark Few’s squad isn’t as potent offensively and is missing some size after the injury to Braden Huff.

Hard road: Florida

Florida got the final No. 1 seed despite losing in the SEC Tournament semifinals against Vanderbilt, and Todd Golden and company should not be happy with their draw in the second weekend. While neither Clemson nor Iowa should threaten the Gators in the Round of 32, the Sweet 16 and the Elite Eight should be very difficult for Florida.

The Sweet 16 very likely brings a rubber match with Vanderbilt, which just crushed Florida by 17 points in Nashville. The Commodores have one of the best backcourts in the country in Tyler Tanner and Duke Miles, and the dynamic duo was on fire throughout the conference tournament. Florida won the only regular season meeting between the two, but had to struggle to get a four-point win on the road.

Florida would very likely see either Illinois or Houston in the Elite Eight, and both matchups present plenty of challenges. The Illini have arguably the best offense in the country and have the size to match Florida on the front line. Keaton Wagler is a superstar and can take over any game, and he alone gives Illinois the advantage at the guard spot.

The south regional is in Houston, so the Cougars would be playing a de facto home game against Florida in a potential Elite Eight clash. A potential national title game rematch would also give Houston a massive advantage at the guard spot with Kingston Flemings, Emanuel Sharp and Milos Uzan in the backcourt. If Joseph Tugler can stay out of foul trouble, Houston has the formula to bother Florida in that regional final.

Easy road: Houston

On the bottom half of the south region, Houston has to love its chances of getting back to the Final Four for the second-straight year and the third time overall under Kelvin Sampson. Tugler and Chris Cenac Jr. would bully a smaller Texas A&M team in a potential second-round clash, while Saint Mary’s would have a hard time scoring points against Houston’s defense.

In the Sweet 16, Houston will like its chances in a matchup with Illinois. The Cougars can match the Illini’s physicality up front, and Illinois doesn’t have the kind of elite defense that has troubled the Houston guards and forced them into tough shots this season. While a regional final matchup with Florida is far from an easy draw, the Gators will likely be coming off of a very tough battle with Vanderbilt and will be playing against a raucous crowd.

Hard road: UConn

UConn is struggling a bit coming into the NCAA Tournament and is coming off of a bad loss against St. John’s in the Big East title game. The bracket did Dan Hurley and company no favors, sticking them in the East Region with top overall seed Duke.

Before UConn can get to a regional final tilt with the Blue Devils, it would likely have to go through a hot UCLA team in the Round of 32 that is playing its best basketball of the season. Donovan Dent is one of the best players in the entire country, and he has 77 assists and just six turnovers in his last seven full games.

If UConn can get through that game, Michigan State is very likely waiting in the Sweet 16. UConn can struggle to score the ball consistently at times, and a Michigan State team that has plenty of experience and physicality could give the Huskies plenty of trouble. Hurley’s reward for making it through that stage would be a Duke team that has been dominant of late, or maybe even a rematch with Rick Pitino and the Johnnies.

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