Manchester City vs Real Madrid predictions and betting tips – Any hope for Guardiola?

Real Madrid hold a 3-0 aggregate advantage ahead of the second leg of this Champions League last-16 tie, with Fede Valverde’s hat-trick the difference between the two teams last week.

Pep Guardiola’s side will need to come up with something special to turn this one around. Can they do it, or will Madrid go through as expected?

• Manchester City to win and both teams to score – 7/4 with bet365
• Over 3.5 goals – 6/5 with bet365
• Antoine Semenyo to score any time – 7/5 with bet365

Manchester City vs Real Madrid odds

Find the latest Manchester City vs Real Madrid betting odds here. All odds are provided by our recommended football bookmakers and are subject to change.

Manchester City vs Real Madrid predictions

Manchester City have achieved some extraordinary feats in the Pep Guardiola era. That is why it would be a mistake to write them off.

Make no mistake, though: if City were to advance to the quarter-finals of the Champions League on Tuesday, it would be one of the club’s best ever results.

Remember, Guardiola’s side beat Real Madrid 4-0 at the Etihad Stadium in 2023. A repeat of that scoreline this week would send City through to the last eight.

However, Madrid are in a commanding position midway through this last-16 tie. They were the bookies’ underdogs going into the first leg, no doubt because Alvaro Arbeloa was without several key players due to injury.

Yet as they so often do on Champions League nights, Madrid pulled something special out of the bag. 

A first-half hat-trick from Fede Valverde gave the Blancos a 3-0 victory over City at the Estadio Santiago Bernabeu. They might easily have won by a wider margin, but Vinicius Junior failed to convert a penalty just before the hour mark. Had he scored, this tie might be over already – although at 3-0, Arbeloa insists the job is not done yet.

“As far as next week goes,” he said immediately after the victory, “I’ve told the guys that there’s a whole lot left in the tie – this isn’t over.”

Further disappointment awaited for Manchester City at the weekend. After Arsenal beat Everton 2-0 with two late goals at the Emirates Stadium, Guardiola’s men could only manage a 1-1 draw with West Ham United. 

As a result, Arsenal now hold a nine-point lead over City in the Premier League title race. Even with a game in hand on their rivals for the crown, City are up against it.

It was obviously not the best way for City to prepare for Tuesday’s second leg against Real Madrid. Their manager is not ready to give up, but Guardiola has acknowledged the difficult position his team are in.

“We have to try [and overturn the 3-0 deficit]. What have we got to lose?” he said. “In this room, is there someone who will have a bet for us to come back against Madrid? No one! No way. 

“Madrid never come back in history from 3-0 with 15 Champions Leagues. Never, ever. So of course it’s a tough result.”

Manchester City vs Real Madrid betting tips

Will Manchester City or Real Madrid progress to the quarter-finals of the Champions League?

City to get something 

We do not envisage this being an entirely comfortable night for Real Madrid.

Manchester City will put the Spanish giants under pressure and they may even get within a goal of equalising on aggregate.

However, it is hard to see City keeping a clean sheet, even against a Madrid side without Kylian Mbappe and Jude Bellingham. 

The Blancos will bide their time, but they are bound to score at some point – and that would leave City needing four goals just to force extra time.

That would be a tall order, but Guardiola’s team should have enough to win on the night, especially as Madrid would not be too fussed by a slender defeat.

Back Manchester City to win and both teams to score at 7/4 with bet365

No clean sheets here

Manchester City must go at Real Madrid from the get-go on Tuesday evening. The quicker they can narrow the deficit, the better.

Madrid will not mind ceding possession to City, with Vinicius likely to lead their quick breaks forward. The Blancos should create chances in this way.

Madrid’s defence is still not at full strength, though, so City will also have plenty of joy in the final third.

There will be plenty of attacking talent on display at the Etihad Stadium, and the fact that City need to go on the front foot immediately means we should see a fair few goals.

Choose over 3.5 goals at 6/5 with bet365

Semenyo to strike

Erling Haaland is going through a sticky spell. 

The Norway international has scored only three goals in his last 14 appearances in all competitions. By his high standards, that is a very poor return.

Antoine Semenyo has frequently looked like Manchester City’s greatest goal threat in recent weeks, with the forward having struck seven times since his January switch from Bournemouth.

Semenyo has yet to score in the Champions League, but he is good value to do so against Real Madrid.

Go for Antoine Semenyo to score any time at 7/5 with bet365

Manchester City vs Real Madrid predicted lineups

• Manchester City expected lineup: Donnarumma; Nunes, Dias, Guehi, Ait-Nouri; Silva, Rodri, O’Reilly; Semenyo, Haaland, Cherki.
• Real Madrid expected lineup: Courtois; Alexander-Arnold, Huijsen, Rudiger, F. Garcia; Valverde, Tchouameni, Camavinga, Guler; Diaz, Vinicius.

Where to watch Manchester City vs Real Madrid

• Location: Etihad Stadium, Manchester, England.
• Date and time: Tuesday 17th February, 8pm.
• How to watch: Amazon Prime Video.

More Champions League predictions

We have plenty more Champions League predictions and picks – find our latest betting tips from expert punters in our match preview overview.

About the author

Greg Lea

Greg Lea is a freelance football writer from London. He predominantly covers the Premier League and has had work published by the Guardian, FourFourTwo, ESPN and others.

Follow Greg on X: @GregLeaFootball

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