Jacksonville Jaguars vs Buffalo Bills odds, predictions, and betting tips – the best game of the Wild Card Round

This Sunday, the No. 3-seeded Jacksonville Jaguars are hosting the No.6-seeded Buffalo Bills. Both of these teams have at least 12 wins. 

Over the course of NFL history, these teams are 10-10 against one another, while the Jaguars are 2-0 in the playoffs against the Bills. 

Let’s check out this Wild Card round edition of the NFL in more detail below.

Jaguars vs Bills best bets

• Khalil Shakir 4+ receptions – 2/5 with BetMGM
• James Cook under 79.5 rushing yards – 9/10 with BetMGM
• Brenton Strange under 35.5 receiving yards – 22/25 with BetMGM

The Buffalo Bills lost the AFC East to the New England Patriots, and with that, they’ve been put in a tough spot: They have to go on the road for all of the postseason unless the Los Angeles Chargers pick up some wins and they face them. 

Their key loss came against the Philadelphia Eagles at home, 13-12, after scoring what would’ve been the game-tying touchdown, but opted to go for two, and lost.

Now, they draw a formidable opponent in the Jaguars. These teams played in the 2018 postseason, and the Jaguars won 10-3. The Bills’ strength is their rushing attack, ranking first in the NFL in rushing yards (159.6) and rushing attempts (32.2). 

The Jaguars are one of the hottest teams in the NFL right now, winning eight in a row, including a road win over the No. 1 seed in the AFC, the Denver Broncos. They’re coming off a 41-7 trouncing of the Tennessee Titans.

This game will be a true battle of strength versus strength, as the Jaguars have the best run defence in the NFL, holding teams to 85.6 rushing yards per game.

Jaguars vs Bills preview

The point spread has gone back and forth in this game, but right now, the Bills are favoured by one point. 

That said, I’m taking the Jaguars. 

As mentioned, the Jaguars have the best run defence in the NFL, and they’ve not allowed a single running back to run for more than 74 yards. Jonathan Taylor did this in Week 14 when he ran 21 times, averaging 3.5 yards per carry.

Additionally, while I think Josh Allen is of the calibre to lead the Bills to victory single-handedly, he’s not had a lot of success against the coverages the Jaguars most often play lately. 

The Jaguars primarily play Cover-3 and Cover-6. Over his last five games, on 71 dropbacks, Allen is completing 71.7% of his passes for 455 yards, no touchdowns, and two interceptions. 

The Jaguars get a home win.

Jaguars vs Bills tips

Find the latest odds for the Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Buffalo Bills courtesy of BetMGM. Odds are subject to change.

This is a true strength-on-strength matchup, and this game could go either way. While the Jaguars have a stout run defence, the Bills have something they don’t, and that’s Allen. This is the perfect point spread for this game as it’s essentially a pick ‘em. 

Khalil Shakir 4+ receptions

Shakir has been easily the more reliable receiver for Allen this season. He leads the team with a 19.8% target share, catching 72 of 95 passes for 719 yards and four touchdowns.

Over his last three games — which I’ll consider Weeks 15 to 17 as starters were sat in Week 18 — his target share was 22.1%, catching 15 of 17 passes for 134 yards. 

Shakir has caught four passes or more in each of his last three games and in 11 of 16 games. 

He’ll be leaned on plenty in this game. 

Tip Khalil Shakir to have 4 receptions or more against the Jaguars at 2/5 with BetMGM

James Cook under 79.5 rushing yards

As mentioned, the Jaguars have not allowed a running back to run for more than 74 yards this season. While James Cook is a different calibre of running back, I’d say he’s on par with what Taylor can do, and he managed just 3.5 yards per carry. 

It’s possible Cook could get so many carries to surpass this, but he’s averaging 18 carries per game and the Jaguars surrender just 3.87 yards per carry to opposing running backs. Thus, if you take their averages, that’s just under 70 rushing yards. 

Take the under.

Back James Cook to have 79 rushing yards or fewer against the Jaguars at 9/10 with BetMGM

Brenton Strange under 35.5 receiving yards

Strange has been on a bit of a tear, going for 37 yards or more in three straight games, but he could take a slight step back here. 

Across 12 games, he’s had 37 yards or more in eight games, but he hasn’t faced the Bills. 

The Bills allow a league-low 29.65 receiving yards per game to tight ends. Not only that, but the position is averaging 2.71 receptions per game, which is the lowest in the league by more than a full reception.

Tip Brenton Strange to have 35 receiving yards or fewer against the Bills at 22/25 with BetMGM

Jaguars vs Bills injury report

Below are the key injuries to report ahead of the action.

Jacksonville Jaguars

• Out: Jourdan Lewis (cornerback) – foot; Travis Hunter (wide receiver) – knee; Jalen McLeod (linebacker) – ankle; Jack Kiser (linebacker) – undisclosed; Caleb Ransaw (cornerback) – lower body. 
• Questionable: Greg Newsome II (cornerback) – shoulder; Jarrian Jones (cornerback) illness; Cole Van Lanen (offensive tackle) – knee; Danny Striggow (defensive end) – elbow/ankle; Montaric Brown (cornerback) – neck; Patrick Mekari (guard) – back. 
• Doubtful: N/A

Buffalo Bills

• Out: Ed Oliver (defensive tackle) – biceps/knee; Jordan Phillips (defensive tackle) – ankle; Maxwell Hairston (cornerback) – ankle; Curtis Samuel (wide receiver) – elbow; Tyler Bass (kicker) – left hip/groin; Landon Jackson (defensive end) – knee; Dorian Strong (cornerback) – neck; Taylor Rapp (safety) – knee, Damar Hamlin (safety) – pectoral.
• Questionable: Dalton Kincaid (tight end) – knee; Shaq Thompson (linebacker) – neck; Matt Milano (linebacker) – illness; Jordan Poyer (safety) – hamstring; Joshua Palmer (wide receiver) – ankle; DaQuan Jones (defensive tackle) – calf; Terrel Bernard (linebacker) – calf; Matt Prater (kicker) – quad.
• Doubtful: N/A

Jaguars vs Bills game info

• Date: Sunday 11th January
• Time: 6:00pm GMT
• Venue: EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, Florida
• Where to watch: Sky Sports NFL

About the author

Richard Janvrin

Richard Janvrin brings nearly a decade of experience covering sports, sports betting, and everything iGaming. Richard received his bachelor’s degree in Journalism/English from the University of New Hampshire. Throughout his career, Richard has written for sites like Bleacher Report, Forbes, The Game Day, WSN, Gambling.com, and many more.

Find him on Twitter: @RichardJanvrin

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