I was so wrong about the Celtics

I say a lot of things on the internet about the Boston Celtics. Not all of it pans out.

For instance, I accurately predicted the Celtics would sweep the Indiana Pacers en route to winning the 2024 NBA Finals. Perhaps a bit high on my own supply, I ran that take back the following year against the Orlando Magic and… they still won the series… in 5. It wasn’t as cool.

But sometimes, I say some things about the Celtics, both on the internet and in my private life, that are so demonstrably wrong that the recognition of how wrong it was actually explains how well the season is going. Even with their loss Sunday, Boston is 19-12, good for third in the Eastern Conference and it doesn’t feel like a fluke. As football season winds down, people are going to wake up from their NFL hyperbaric chambers and notice that the Boston Celtics, sans Jayson Tatum/Jrue Holiday/Kristaps Porzingis, have inexplicably been a playoff lock the entire season. And I was so, totally, utterly and completely wrong about this whole thing.

Here is a list of things that I thought coming into this season: 

• The Celtics had zero playable big men
• Payton Pritchard is not a startable point guard
• Their wing rotation is in tatters; it might be three years before Hugo Gonzalez makes an impact and Jordan Walsh has shown me nothing to think he’ll be an NBA-level player
• The offense does not function without Jayson Tatum
• Jaylen Brown probably peaked in value two years ago and the Celtics should maybe trade him 

And here’s how that’s all going:

• Neemias Queta has become an indispensable winning player at center and Josh Minott has had big-time moments 
• Payton Pritchard has single-handedly taken down teams with individual scoring explosions and has been an excellent, consistent point guard
• Hugo Gonzalez was recently SECOND IN THE NBA IN NET RATING, and Austin Reaves thinks Jordan Walsh can be one of the best defenders in the league.
• The Celtics are fourth in the NBA in offensive rating and ahead of the Oklahoma City Thunder
• Jaylen Brown has scored 30 points in 11 of his last 12 games and the only non-30 bomb was a 19-point triple-double. He’s been one of the best players in the league this season and it’s not debatable.

So how did this happen? How did this Celtics team, who many in the media (not just me I promise guys) thought should consider tanking since they control their own draft pick, start out so hot they might have to make some additions at the trade deadline? After some self-reflection, there are three reasons.

First, I underestimated Joe Mazzulla’s psycho-competitive mentality, in which all suggestions of losing and tanking and “rebooting” go to die. Mazzulla is a serious coach, and he and Brad Stevens have built a team of serious basketball players — ones who are not going to sit around and hear that, because their All-NBA leader has a torn Achilles, they just have to forfeit the season. 

You can see this mentality in their body language; Mazzulla’s eyes might dart around during a game, but they also contain so much locked-in juice you’d think he’d need special glasses. Pritchard thinks he’s the best scorer in the NBA and has abandoned his status as a glorified outside shot specialist, scoring at all three levels. Queta plays with so much intensity you wonder why the Sacramento Kings let him out of the building (then you remember they are the Sacramento Kings and are no longer confused). Everyone is playing at their absolute maximum output, because that is what is required of them. Think Heat Culture, but actually real.

The second reason is Tatum’s absence itself, as none of this glorious creation would be possible if the Celtics were running the same offense as always. And it’s not just Tatum that’s out — the Celtics lost Holiday and Porzingis… and Luke Kornet and Al Horford. There are huge chunks of minutes to fill. That’s scary, and part of why I was so skeptical. But if anything, this season has been a wonderful laboratory of brand new Celtics basketball rather than the same old same old Tatum-centric switch hunting, which works but isn’t particularly fresh.

The Tatum absence has yielded outrageous efficiency from the rest of the squad. Jaylen Brown has taken the shots vacated by Tatum’s absence and turned them into points — he was always going to score more with Tatum out, but he’s shot up seven entire points per game from last year, going from 22 to 29 a game. That just doesn’t happen. 

Meanwhile, the rest of the roster is filled with guys who probably never thought they’d get significant playing time when the Celtics’ roster had five all-stars and the sixth man of the year. They play like a pack of wolves that realize this is their moment to make things happen; Gonzalez has been out-of-control incredible in the last month, flying around like some sort of Dennis Rodman-Draymond Green type, but with more explosiveness off the bounce. 

The third reason for this turnaround is on our end. It has taken fans like me some time to recalibrate from being the championship favorites to a mere playoff team again, but the whole ordeal has made for quite the positive season. Expectations were at rock bottom, so this season has felt like gambling with money you found on the casino floor and the winnings just keep rolling. 

But Brad Stevens is a crazy good gambler, and so none of this is an accident. The Celtics have been making great move after great move for the better part of a decade, and this machine of competency has started to feel consistent and replicable. 

I don’t know if I’d venture to say the Celtics are going to do something crazy like win multiple playoff rounds, but the Eastern Conference lacks anything resembling a titan like the West, which somehow has three (Denver, OKC, San Antonio). And I’ve been wrong about so much already, I’ll abstain from further prognostication. 

But that’s fine, because as I said, we’re playing with house money. We have cross-the-board competitiveness mixed with way more opportunities for new players and a generally positive worldview. It may not be a championship formula unless Tatum comes back this season, but the benefits of this will be felt either way. When Tatum does return, this season or next, the Celtics will have so much more to build on then I ever thought possible. In short, I was wrong, and am happy to be wrong. This season has been a joy, and isn’t so do-or-die as all the previous ones when it was championship-or-everyone cries themselves to sleep. 

So if you’ll excuse me, I’m going to go enjoy watching the Celtics without weighty expectations, before it all gets real again. Or maybe it’s already real, and I’ll be even wronger than I already am.