Fans warned of baring brunt of $10bn ‘bargain’ NFL rights talks as record-breaking negotiations loom

Just mere months after the NFL posted its best regular-season viewership in over three decades, the league is now suddenly at huge risk of seeing a sharp decline.

This comes after the revelation that, amid the ongoing NFL media rights renegotiations, football-watching fans will likely see a hike in the costs to watch the US’s most beloved sport.

Getty

Bank of America Securities warned back in February that the NFL’s domestic linear rights holders were exposed to elevated financial risk.

On Tuesday, Guggenheim suggested that the league is now in a strong position to increase its rights fees which is currently worth $10 billion a season.

In 2025, NFL games equated to a cost per viewer hour of $1.20, and its 18.7 million average per-game viewership – the league’s best regular-season viewership since the 1989 campaign.

It was also the second-best figure since recording began.

However, citing the numbers from that of the NBA, in which they increased their cost-per-viewer hour bases to $3.55 in their latest deal – over double that of the NFL’s current deal – the NFL is likely to significantly up their prices during renegotiations.

“The higher cost of the NBA rights on a per-viewer-hour basis is informative but not definitive in the context of increased value potential for NFL rights,” Guggenheim said.

“Either the NBA partners overpaid significantly relative to performance or the NFL should drive significantly more long-term value to partners than is implied at current rates.”

The NBA’s deal in particular is thought to have left NFL executives ‘frustrated’, as UFC also followed suit, and recently struck a mega broadcasting deal.

Costs will ultimately fall on the consumer

Record-breaking numbers are projected, with the NFL driving far more viewership than the NBA, and continues to be the most-watched programming in U.S. television, capturing 83 of the 100 most-watched telecasts in 2025.

For additional context, the NBA did not feature once on that list.

Getty

Getty

Some reports suggest that NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell is seeking to double the current media rights deal to upward of $20 billion annually.

But who will ultimately have to pay the price for this? The fans, of course.

“Partners will likely pursue aggressive monetization through affiliate rate increases, station revenue, and advertising pricing, with the majority of these costs passed through to consumers,” Guggenheim added.

Three-figure streaming costs threaten viewership

With games airing on 10 different platforms including Amazon, CBS, ESPN, Fox, NBC, Netflix, NFL Network, and YouTube all holding rights to NFL games, paying for access to these streaming services does not come cheap to fans.

In fact, if a consumer was to purchase all available subscription bundles, they could spend as much as $1,000 a season.

Forbes, though, estimates that 50 percent of Americans rely solely on streaming providers instead of traditional broadcast TV providers.

Getty

In 2025, the average price for these football-watching fans would be upward of $765 to watch every regular season game, and this doesn’t include fees and taxes, which can be as high as 10 percent depending on the state.

The NFL’s current contract includes an opt-out clause with most of its rights holders following the end of the 2029 season.

However, due to the complexity of financial deals of this scale, talks are expected to be held as early as this year.

Prior to Super Bowl LX taking place last month in San Francisco, California, Goodell publicly spoke of his plans to maximize reach and revenue.

“What we focus on is ‘How do we reach the broadest number of people, on every broadcast? How do we make an event out of that?’” Goodell said.

“We select our partners in part for that reason. Economics are obviously part of that, the value that’s created.

“But at the end of the day, we want partners who are going to broaden our audience.”

At least, following ESPN’s $2 billion NFL takeover in February, NFL Network, NFL Fantasy and RedZone, will now be under the same cost-package.

Oh, and not forgetting to mention that fans will be treated to a free broadcast when the Dallas Cowboys (opponent TBC) head to Rio de Janeiro, Brazil to play a regular season game at the iconic Maracanã Stadium.

Hooray.

Stay up to date with the latest from the NFL across all platforms – follow our dedicated talkSPORT USA Facebook page and subscribe to our talkSPORT USA YouTube channel for all the news, exclusives, interviews and more.