Even after escaping Siena scare, Duke is doomed in March Madness after poor showing

Duke basketball nearly became the third No. 1 seed to go down immediately. Siena handed the Blue Devils everything and applied the scare to Jon Scheyer and company. Scheyer and Duke managed to escape 71-65 on Thursday to start March Madness.

Scheyer himself admitted he felt out-coached against Gerry McNamara of Siena.

“They were more ready to play,” Scheyer told Tracy Wolfson of CBS Sports. “The readiness and toughness of our guys to weather that storm in the second half…proud of them. It’s great to get this win. But there’s a lot we can learn.”

"G-Mac, he outcoached me."

Jon Scheyer told @TracyWolfson that there's a lot Duke can learn from this game. pic.twitter.com/DHUzWEkMRM

— CBS Sports College Basketball (@CBSSportsCBB) March 19, 2026

The last seven words takes on a massive meaning moving forward. Duke must learn from its string of mistakes immediately for these reasons.

Why poor showing vs. Siena signals early exit soon for Duke

Siena took a Big East formula and shoved it right in front of Duke.

The Saints started by crowding the paint to force tough shots for the Blue Devils. Even star brothers Cayden and Cameron Boozer couldn’t get going out the gate. McNamara brought this philosophy over from his playing days at Syracuse (when the Orange played in the Big East). He played on an Orange team that thrived on controlling the paint including on defense.

But Siena exposed Duke’s man-to-man scheme on offense. The Saints had enough speed to blow past Duke defenders toward the hoop. This sparked Scheyer to switch over to a zone pressure look.

That change swung the momentum back Duke’s way as the Blue Devils became the one forcing the bad shot attempts. Still, Duke’s next foe TCU will likely sprinkle in elements of Siena’s blueprint on Saturday in the round of 32.

But there are more reasons why Duke looks doomed moving forward.

Duke needs missing star now

The Boozers can only do so much.

Round one proved Duke needs Patrick Ngongba II as soon as possible. The No. 16 seed went straight after Duke’s frontcourt with the center not in the lineup.

Ngongba fortifies the center position and Duke’s front when he’s on the floor. He’s a physical talent who protects the vertical space around him, then pummels inside when he’s attempting to score.

The 6-foot-11 big on the floor hands the Devils the luxury of keeping their wing players at home to create open kickout looks. His presence on defense forces teams to shoot from long range and think twice about feeding the ball inside.

The Saints came close to wearing down Duke’s interior without Ngongba.

Is TCU sounding off Duke upset alarm already?

Fans who filled Duke as their national champion pick can breathe somewhat. The Blue Devils avoided their first round one exit in nearly two decades.

But those fans must remember this about TCU: The Horned Frogs own a victory against one other No. 1 seed in this tournament by beating Florida during the regular season.

Hence why Duke is more vulnerable than ever entering Saturday. Even if Duke wins, more obstacles await.

St. John’s rose as a heavy favorite to make a Sweet 16 run. The Red Storm presents the brute force that can wear down the Devils. Plus brings national title winner Rick Pitino courtside. And that’s not the only potential remaining hurdle here in the East Regional. UConn and Michigan State could tangle with Duke if one or the other goes on a run.

Duke must trounce TCU to win back fans and convince the nation it’s national championship material. Because the upset alarm is close to sounding off.

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