Drake Maye and the Patriots have turned things around with explosive plays

To hear Mike Vrabel tell it, Drake Maye is the MVP of the 2025 NFL season.

Certainly, Vrabel has a somewhat biased opinion, given Maye’s status as the starting quarterback for the New England Patriots. But earlier this week, ahead of New England’s first home playoff game since Tom Brady, the Patriots head coach made the case for Maye to be this season’s MVP.

That case began with explosive plays, as Vrabel elaborated on Monday during his first press conference of the week.

“He’s extremely accurate. He’s made the most of every passing opportunity. We’ve created a lot of X [explosive] plays, and to create X plays it’s about 30% scheme, it’s about 70% of the players making a play and part of that is the quarterback putting it in a great location for run after catch. I think you continue to see that,” began Vrabel.

“His ability to extend, use his legs to gain first downs, critical first downs. His ability to score when we’ve asked him to score and run it in. He’s been everything that we’ve asked and he continues to get better. He’s not satisfied.

“So, I know that our success of where we are right now, today, has a lot to do with Drake Maye.”

Before using Vrabel’s answer to highlight how Maye has contributed to these explosive plays, let’s start with some numbers.

Using passes of 20+ yards, and runs of 20+ yards, as the threshold for an explosive play we can illustrate just how big a step forward the Patriots have taken this season. Last year New England had nine runs of 20 yards or more, ranking the Patriots 19th in the NFL.

This year, New England has 16 such runs, tied for third in the NFL with the Buffalo Bills, and behind only the Baltimore Ravens and the Seattle Seahawks.

The jump in the passing game is even more stark.

During the 2024 season, New England generated just 34 passing plays of 20 yards or more, tied with the New York Giants for last in the league.

This season? The Patriots had 69 passing plays of 20 yards or more, behind only the 72 generated by Matthew Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams.

That right there might be why those two quarterbacks are considered the favorites for the honor Vrabel talked about earlier this week.

However, looking through those 69 passing plays via the lens offered by Vrabel earlier this week, you can see how Maye accounts for the big jump in production from last season to this season, and just what he has meant to this Patriots offense in 2025.

We can start with this play:

This is a 3rd-and-7 situation from New England’s Week 9 win over the Atlanta Falcons. Maye hits DeMario Douglas on a deep crossing route from a clean pocket, but the placement allows Douglas to catch the throw in stride and maintain his speed, running away from the coverage defender.

Douglas even makes a second defender miss, turning a 29-yard throw into a 58-yard gain, with 29 yards coming after the catch from Douglas.

An offense — and a quarterback — do not need to throw 29 yards downfield to create an explosive play. Sometimes what matters more is, like Vrabel outlined earlier this week, accuracy and timing in the passing game.

On this connection with Stefon Diggs from New England’s Week 5 win over the Bills, Maye simply gets the ball out on-time and in-rhythm on a quick stick route to Diggs. But because of the timing on the throw, Diggs can make the transition from receiver to runner quickly, and make the first defender miss:

You sometimes hear that yardage after the catch (YAC) is a quarterback statistic. When 6-yard throws are becoming 30-yard gains, it is often the case that the quarterback has found a way to help the receiver.

Vrabel also highlighted Maye’s accuracy, which is most evident to all levels of the field but in particular in the downfield passing game. You can point to several metrics to illustrate the notion that the second-year quarterback has been the most effective passer this season, starting with this look at “Quarterback Efficiency,” which examines both Completion Percentage above Expected (CPOE) and Expected Points Added per Play:

Maye is almost off the chart.

And Maye is doing this while averaging 9.2 air yards per throw, behind only Marcus Mariota (10.0) and Stafford (9.3).

That efficiency also shows up in the downfield passing game. According to Next Gen Stats Maye completed 61.2% of his downfield passes (defined as ten air yards or more), the highest rate in the NFL this season and the seventh-highest mark in the league since 2016.

According to charting data from Pro Football Focus, Maye posted an Adjusted Completion Percentage (ACP) of 56.5% on throws of 20 or more air yards this season, fourth-best in the NFL. He also posted a league high NFL Passer rating of 132.7 on those throws, connecting for nine touchdowns against just one interception.

Again, accuracy helps on those throws, like it did on this touchdown to Kayshon Boutte against the Cleveland Browns in Week 8:

Or on this clutch throw to Kyle Williams in a big spot against the Ravens in Week 16:

This throw, coming with the Patriots trailing by 11 early in the fourth quarter in a pivotal game, could not have been placed in a better spot.

There is one final aspect of Vrabel’s answer to examine, and that is how Maye can use his legs to extend plays, and create opportunities both in the downfield passing game, and on the ground as a runner. Take this connection with Rhamondre Stevenson from early in the season:

In a game that seems like a lifetime ago — Week 2 against the Miami Dolphins — New England trails 20-15 late in the third quarter. At this point in the young season the Patriots are 0-1, and facing an 0-2 start in the face as they line up for this third-down play.

Jaelan Phillips gets loose off the right edge and pressures Maye early in the down, but the young quarterback escapes, climbs the pocket, and keeps his eyes downfield before making a perfect throw to Stevenson that picks up not just the first down, but 55 yards.

Or take this play from last week against the Dolphins:

From a collapsing pocket Maye escapes, keeping his eyes downfield, before finding Diggs late in the down for a big gain.

Of course, these traits will get put to the test by the Los Angeles Chargers this weekend, a test that might be Maye’s biggest yet. Those numbers in the downfield passing game? Los Angeles has allowed a completion percentage of just 40.7% on throws ten yards or more downfield, the third-lowest rate in the NFL according to Next Gen Stats. The Chargers also snatched 14 interceptions on those throws, second-most in the league.

This is a defense that has limited explosive plays as well. The Chargers allowed just 37 passes of 20 yards or more this year, with only the Minnesota Vikings allowing fewer.

Vrabel began the week making the case for Drake Maye as the MVP.

But if he continues to create explosive plays like he has all season, against this Chargers defense, he might keep New England on a path to something even bigger.