College Football Playoff National Championship: Instant prediction for Miami-Indiana

A team of destiny will meet … a team of destiny for the national championship.

Miami began the year at home with a win over Notre Dame, hoping to get a chance to close out the season at Hard Rock Stadium in the national championship game. While the Hurricanes almost did not even make the field, Miami has run off three consecutive upsets to reach the title game.

And a chance to close out the season by winning a national championship at home.

To do that, however, they’ll need to knock off another team of destiny. This has been a dream season for Indiana, their second year with Curt Cignetti at the helm. After reaching the College Football Playoff a year ago, Indiana secured the top seed in this year’s installment, following a win over Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game. After throttling Alabama 38-3 in the Rose Bowl, the Hoosiers booked their spot in the title game with another dominant performance against Oregon in the Peach Bowl, winning by a final score of 56-22.

And along the way, Fernando Mendoza picked up a Heisman Trophy, and inched closer to being perhaps the first player taken in the 2026 NFL Draft.

But before then, there is a title to decide.

Who takes home the hardware at Hard Rock Stadium? Let’s make a snap judgment.

When Miami has the ball

Running back Mark Fletcher Jr. has been one of the best players in the entire College Football Playoff. After rushing for 172 yards in Miami’s first-round win against Texas A&M, and putting another 90 on the board against Ohio State, Fletcher ripped off another 133 on the ground against Ole Miss. While Fletcher has yet to reach the end zone on the ground — he did catch a touchdown pass against the Buckeyes — he has given Miami a pair of legs to lean on over the past three games.

But he is not alone on the Hurricanes offense, as the Hurricanes can run their passing game through shifty Malachi Toney, who has two touchdown receptions over the past three games. And while quarterback Carson Beck has faced questions since transferring from Georgia, it was Beck who led the go-ahead drive against Ole Miss on Thursday night, capped off with his game winning scramble.

Up front, Miami has two potential cornerstone tackles in right tackle Francis Mauigoa (who could be the first offensive tackle taken in the 2026 NFL Draft) and left tackle Markel Bell, who has been impressive in the run game.

Of course, things will get tougher against Indiana’s defense. That group is led by some talent up front in defensive linemen Mikail Kamara and Daniel Ndukwe, linebackers Rolijah Hardy and Isaiah Jones, and some talent on the back end in versatile safety Devan Boykin.

Matchup to watch: Fletcher and the Miami offensive line against this Indiana front. Miami may want to grind this game out a bit and keep Mendoza on the sideline. If they can do that, it will go a long way towards the Hurricanes winning this game.

When Indiana has the ball

Fernando Mendoza is the headliner, the Heisman Trophy winner who threw 32 touchdown passes in the regular season, another in the Big Ten Championship Game, and three against Alabama in the Rose Bowl. Mendoza hung five more touchdown passes on Oregon in Friday night’s dominant performance, and rides into the title game with a hot hand.

But Mendoza is not alone. He has a pair of boundary receivers in Elijah Sarratt and E.J. Williams that seem to get their hands on anything thrown in their direction, as well as downfield threat (and roommate) Charlie Becker. Add in Omar Cooper Jr., the team’s leading receiver and the wideout who delivered perhaps the biggest play of the year for Indiana — his toe-tap TD to cap off the comeback against Penn State — and you have a dangerous group of receivers.

But Indiana can also work the ground game, with a two-headed tandem of Roman Hemby and Kaelon Black. This is an offense that has been nearly perfect through two playoff games, and almost throughout the entire season.

However, this Miami defense poses some challenges. Rueben Bain Jr. might be the first pass rusher taken in the 2026 NFL Draft, and fellow defensive end Akheem Mesidor might not be too far behind him. (In fact, Mel Kiper Jr. has Bain as his top-ranked defensive end, with Mesidor at DE3).

But arguably the most dangerous player on the field for Miami’s defense, and someone that Indiana will need to account for on every down, is slot cornerback Keionte Scott. While Scott’s primary role is in coverage, the Hurricanes have employed him as an effective blitzer early and often this season. He recorded five sacks this season, and while he did not get home against Trinidad Chambliss on Thursday night, he impacted several throws with pressure on the Ole Miss QB. He is also more than willing to stick his nose in against the run.

Matchup to watch: Mendoza versus Scott. Yes, a QB vs. Slot CB matchup is not exactly a one-on-one you will see often, you can expect that Miami will try and get Scott some free runs at Mendoza to try and generate pressure and perhaps a turnover or two. How Mendoza identifies Scott, and when he blitzes, will be a key factor in this game.

Prediction

Again, these are two teams of destiny, but only one can take home the hardware.

What Miami has done is stunning, just to get to this point. That defense is going to pose some problems for Indiana.

But not enough.

Indiana 31, Miami 17