Cheltenham 2026 Favourites and outsiders

Mar 4, 2026 - 09:30

It has been billed as the most competitive and wide-open Cheltenham Festival in years, with just two ante-post odds-on favourite among the 28 races at Prestbury Park.

That’s not necessarily a bad thing for punters. In fact, it might be a blessing.

Only two horses sent off at odds-on last year justified their price. And since 2015, there have been 46 odds-on shots at the Festival – just 25 of them have won. That’s a strike-rate of 54 per cent. Solid on paper, but hardly the banker territory.

Favourite-backers won’t need reminding that Constitution Hill, Ballyburn, Jonbon and Majborough were all heavily backed last year – and all came up short.

With the fields as competitive as ever, it’s never been more important to study the favourites carefully to work out which are worth siding with and which are there to be taken on.

And with precious few superstars at the head of the markets this time around, there may not have been a better opportunity for a better priced runner to strike. They’re not up against prime Barca anymore – this is more like trying to knock off 2026 Manchester City.

Tuesday – Champion Day

Champion Hurdle

The showpiece on Day One is, as ever, the Champion Hurdle and this year it looks wide open. With ante-post favourite Sir Gino sidelined through injury, Constitution Hill switching codes and Lossiemouth’s participation unlikely, the market has been left scrambling for direction.

Dan Skelton’s THE NEW LION has been installed as the favourite. He’s five from six over hurdles, with his only blemish a late fall in the Fighting Fifth last November.

The seven-year-old bounced back from that mishap to beat Nemean Lion in the Unibet Hurdle in January and, crucially, he’s two from two at Cheltenham.

Trend: 8 of the last 12 winners were favourites/joint favourites, 9/12 winners were in the top 3 in the betting

Back THE NEW LION at 9/4 with bet365

Supreme Novices’ Hurdle

OLD PARK STAR is set to go off a short-priced favourite for Nicky Henderson in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. The six-year-old has been outstanding on his last three starts, including a dominant 12-length victory in a 2m1f novice hurdle at Cheltenham in December.

However, the depth of this race is a concern, especially at that price. There are several Grade 1 winners in the line-up, many of them front runners who could force a relentless pace. That may not suit Old Park Star, who also likes to be prominent himself.

It is also worth noting that his Topspeed figure of 130 is inferior to Sober Glory at 151, Idaho Sun at 147 and Mydaddypaddy at 144, all of whom are available at bigger prices with TALK THE TALK difficult to oppose on the strength of that win at Leopardstown in February.

Trend: 11 of the last 12 winners were aged 5 or 6

Lay OLD PARK STAR

Back TALK THE TALK at 4/1 with BoyleSports

Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices’ Chase

One of the strongest fancies of the week at 5/4 is Nicky Henderson’s LULAMBA in the Arkle and it’s not difficult to see why. He was beaten a neck in last year’s Triumph Hurdle but has since bounced back to win all five subsequent starts by a combined 30 lengths.

His Newbury success in February made it three from three over fences and proved he belongs at the top level in this division.

Market rival KOPEK DES BORDES impressed with the fluency and authority of his jumping on chase debut at Navan, but that remains just one run over fences.

I’d much rather side with Lulamba’s proven record over fences than potential alone, particularly with his finishing effort likely to be a major asset up the Cheltenham hill.

Trend: 11/12 winners had at least 2 previous chase runs, 9/12 winners had at least 3 previous chase runs, 12/12 winners had at least 1 previous chase win, 9/12 had at least 2 previous chase wins

Back LULAMBA at 7/4 with bet365

Wednesday – Ladies Day

Queen Mother Champion Chase

The feature race of the day features my biggest fancy of the week, MAJBOROUGH. That may spark concern for those who backed him at odds-against in last year’s Arkle, myself included, but the 2024 Triumph Hurdle winner arrives here in fearsome form.

His demolition job in the Dublin Chase at Leopardstown, where he beat Marine Nationale by 19 lengths, was one of the performances of the season.

If Majborough runs to that level, he wins. It’s as simple as that. I would be very surprised if the most talented horse in this line-up is not sent off odds-on by the time Wednesday comes around

Trend: 10/12 winners had at least 2 previous runs at Cheltenham, 7/12 winners had a previous win at Cheltenham

Back MAJBOROUGH at 47/50 with SBK

Turners Novices’ Hurdle

Is a so-called curse enough reason to oppose the favourite? Perhaps not. But it is hard to ignore the numbers. Since 2000, no winner of the Challow Novices’ Hurdle at Newbury has gone on to win at that season’s Cheltenham Festival.

That hoodoo was finally broken by The New Lion in 2025, but I’m not convinced lightning will strike twice with NO DRAMA THIS END.
Instead, I’m siding with the progressive SKYLIGHT HUSTLE.

He may have had a slice of fortune when landing the Grade 1 Future Champions Novice Hurdle over Christmas, with Talk The Talk falling at the last, but he was still finishing strongly. That form has since been franked, with Talk The Talk winning a Grade 1 at the Dublin Racing Festival in February.

Trend: 6 of the last 12 winners were favourites, 10/12 winners were in the top 3 in the betting

Lay NO DRAMA THIS END

Back SKYLIGHT HUSTLE at 6/1 with bet365

Thursday – St. Patrick’s Thursday

Ryanair Chase

Ladies and gentlemen, we’ve reached the only ante-post odds-on favourite at the 2026 Cheltenham Festival: FACT TO FILE, available at 4/5 with most bookmakers. And rightly so.

The Willie Mullins-trained gelding was an emphatic winner of last year’s Ryanair Chase at the Festival and has since propelled himself into Gold Cup contention after an impressive triumph in the Irish Gold Cup, leaving dual Cheltenham Gold Cup hero Galopin Des Champs trailing in his wake.

Owner JP McManus would need to pay a £25,000 supplement for his superstar to contest Friday’s blue riband event.And while that’s possible, it seems more likely he’ll defend the Ryanair crown, with Gaelic Warrior heading to the Gold Cup after Mullins revealed the pair would be split.

Should Willie pull a fast one, then five-time Grade 1 winner IMPAIRE ET PASSE will shorten considerably from his current price of 12/1 with his record at the distance.

Trend: 12/12 winners had at least 2 previous runs at Cheltenham, 9/12 winners have had at least 1 previous win at Cheltenham

Back FACT TO FILE at 4/5 with bet365

Back IMPAIRE ET PASSE each way at 12/1 with bet365

Stayers’ Hurdle

I’m laying the 7/4 favourite TEAHUPOO in Thursday’s Stayers’ Hurdle. Last year’s renewal wasn’t the strongest in recent memory, with Teahupoo unable to justify favouritism when losing out to Bob Olinger. She’ll have another chance this year – as will Bob Olinger – but it’s a much deeper race now, with several likely to improve.

One that catches my eye at a price is Emma Lavelle’s MA SHANTOU, who really impressed when demolishing market rival Impose Toi in the Pertemps Network Cleeve Hurdle in January, making it three wins from three at Cheltenham.

Trend: 3 of the last 12 winners were favourites, 5/12 winners were in the top 3 in the betting

Lay TEAHUPOO

Back MA SHANTOU at 8/1 with bet365

Friday – Gold Cup Day favourites and lays

Gold Cup

There’s no standout market leader for this year’s Gold Cup, with three runners currently priced at 6/1. But it wouldn’t be a Cheltenham Festival tipping piece without a selection in the big one. I’m siding with JANGO BAIE to give Nicky Henderson his first Gold Cup since Bob’s Worth in 2013.

Last season’s Arkle winner returned with a Grade 2 success at Ascot in November following a breathing operation and then ran well to finish a close fourth in the King George at Kempton, having been inconvenienced in a muddling race. The step up in trip should suit this lightly raced chaser.

Trend: 8 of last 12 winners won on their previous run before the Cheltenham Gold Cup, 11/12 winners had their last run within the last 80 days

Back JANGO BAIE at 5/1 with Betfred

Mares’ Chase

DINOBLUE heads to Cheltenham seeking back-to-back victories in the Mares’ Chase, but she looks far too short at 7/4 given the depth of last year’s renewal. I’m happy to take her on with PANIC ATTACK at 5/1 with Ladbrokes.

Dan Skelton has nominated her as his best chance of a winner at this year’s Cheltenham Festival, and it’s easy to see why. She completed a major handicap double with victories in the Paddy Power Gold Cup and the Coral Gold Cup before bolting up by 14 lengths in a Listed contest at Newbury last month.

Skelton said of Panic Attack: “She’s in unbelievable form. I don’t know what’s happened this year, but she’s an absolute credit to herself. She loves racing and has got better as the year has gone by.

“Her form at home has been phenomenal, she looks great and whatever beats her will win. She is absolutely flying.”

Trends: None of the first five winners have had an official rating lower than 147

Lay DINOBLUE

Back PANIC ATTACK at 5/1 with Coral

Our Cheltenham 2026 tips and guides

About the author

Nathan Hill

Nathan Hill is an experienced sports writer who obsessively follows football – both the round ball and American kind – as well as range of other sports including F1, basketball, darts and snooker.

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