Champions League permutations: What each Premier League team needs in final matchweek to secure top-eight spot

Jan 26, 2026 - 13:00

The Champions League League Phase comes to an end this week, and all of the Premier League sides will be at least in the play-offs.

The six English sides have dominated in Europe despite varying levels of success domestically so far.

Arsenal have won all seven Champions League ties

But not all of those teams are destined for a place in the top eight, with a play-off spot likely for a few.

One team that don’t need to worry about anything is Arsenal.

The Gunners might be stuttering in their pursuit of the Premier League title, but in Europe, they have been elite.

Mikel Arteta‘s men have won every game and conceded just twice, and have dispatched of Bayern Munich, Atletico Madrid and Inter Milan along the way.

So, they are into the last 16, but for Liverpool, Tottenham, Newcastle, Chelsea and Manchester City, the play-offs could still await.

So, with that in mind, talkSPORT.com has a look at the permutations for the Premier League sides in the Champions League.

Arsenal

As mentioned, Arsenal are into the last-16, but they could still finish second rather than top the table.

For that to happen, the Gunners need to lose at home to Kairat.

Kairat are rock bottom of the table with one point, scoring five and conceding 19.

But if Arsenal do lose that match, and Bayern win against PSV Eindhoven with a five-goal swing, the German giants will claim top spot.

Every English team has made the knockouts of the Champions League

Liverpool

After an impressive 3-0 win over Marseille in the south of France, Liverpool have 15 points and sit in fourth.

The equation for Arne Slot‘s side is pretty straightforward – if they win, they are in the top eight.

Their final match sees the Reds host Qarabag at Anfield, with the visitors in need of points to guarantee a play-off spot.

A draw would also be enough as long as Barcelona, Sporting Lisbon, Atalanta, Manchester City and Atletico Madrid don’t win.

Even if they do win, City, Atletico and Atalanta would need to better Liverpool’s goal difference of five.

A defeat for the Reds could also see them crash out of the top eight as well with the same wins for the above teams, no matter what happens with the sides currently in the top eight.

Tottenham

Tottenham are struggling in the Premier League, but they have been good in Europe so far.

At home, they won every game, and head into their last match against Eintracht Frankfurt in a great position on 14 points.

If Thomas Frank‘s men win, they’ll go straight into the last-16.

But a draw or defeat would leave them in a precarious position.

If three of City, Atletico, Atalanta, Sporting and Barcelona win, that would kick Spurs out of the top eight.

A win for Inter and a two-goal swing would also see Spurs finish below them, and Juventus with a four-goal swing would also see Tottenham finish below the Italian giants and in a play-off position.

Spurs in the Champions League have been very different

Newcastle

The Magpies are another team that have been inconsistent in the Premier League.

But in the Champions League, they’ve been excellent, with close defeats to Barcelona and Marseille the only disappointments in their campaign to leave them on 13 points with a goal difference of ten.

They have a very tough last fixture away to Paris Saint-Germain, with the French giants not sure of a spot in the last eight yet either.

For Eddie Howe‘s side, a win would almost certainly guarantee their place in the last eight due to their superior goal difference to those below them.

However, a draw would see Newcastle and PSG miss out on the last eight should two of Barcelona, Sporting, Man City, Atletico, Atalanta, Inter and Juventus win.

A defeat would also bring Borussia Dortmund into it if they beat Inter, meaning Newcastle could finish as low as 14th, which is still enough for a top play-off spot.

Newcastle have found scoring goals easy enough in the Champions League, and they have the second-best defence

Chelsea

Chelsea currently occupy the final position in the top eight.

They have a very tough trip to Naples to face Antonio Conte and Napoli, with the Serie A champions sitting in 25th place, knowing they need a win to avoid potentially being knocked out.

For Liam Rosenior‘s side, a win should again be enough to secure the top eight.

But they are in a similar position to Newcastle on 13 points with a goal difference of six.

If they drop points, a win for one of Barcelona, Sporting, Man City, Atletico, Atalanta, Inter and Juventus would knock Chelsea into the play-offs.

Dortmund are also there should they beat Inter.