Cavs vs. Raptors 2026 NBA Playoffs Game 3 prediction, odds, pick

The Cleveland Cavaliers arrive at Scotiabank Arena tonight with a commanding 2-0 series lead and history on their side. They have won 12 consecutive postseason games against the Toronto Raptors. Cleveland is fresh off back-to-back double-digit victories in Cleveland. They have been fueled by the high-scoring trio of Donovan Mitchell, James Harden, and Evan Mobley. Now, the Cavaliers enter Game 3 as 3-point road favorites with the over/under set at 221.5.

For the Raptors, this is a quintessential “must-win” scenario. It requires an immediate offensive resurgence from Brandon Ingram. He struggled with a 3-of-15 field goal shooting performance in Game 2. Meanwhile, Toronto’s potential shift to a small-ball lineup and the raucous home crowd offer a glimmer of hope for a comeback. Still, the betting trends favor a focused Cleveland squad looking to push the Raptors to the brink of elimination.

Cavs vs. Raptors betting odds

Cavs: -3.5, -102
Raptors: +3.5, -118
Over: 221.5, -108
Under: 221.5, -112

(All odds courtesy of Draftkings)

Cavs vs. Raptors key injuries

Cavs: C Thomas Bryant (Calf)

Raptors: G Ja’Kobe Walter (Illness), G Immanuel Quickley (Hamstring), G Chucky Hepburn (Knee)

Cavs vs. Raptors betting trends

Of course, the Cavs and Raptors know each other quite well. They have played against each other 72 times since the 2010-11 regular season. Historically, it’s the Cavs who have held the edge in those head-to-head matchups with a 40-32 record. In their recent matchups, Cleveland has obviously won their last two games to go up, 2-0, in this first round series. Prior to that, though, Toronto had the momentum. The Raptors had won three in a row against Cleveland before this series.

Entering this game, the Cavs obviously look quite solid. Cleveland protected their homecourt, winning Game 1 and 2. Even before that, the Cavs had won five of their final six regular season games. As for the Raptors, they are raring to climb out of a 0-2 series hole. They have dropped three of their last four contests, including Games 1 and 2.

Several betting trends do indicate that some key players could swing this game in either team’s favor:

• The Cavs have won each of their last 12 playoff games against the Raptors.
• Jarrett Allen has scored 10+ points in each of his last 18 appearances with the Cavs as favorites.
• Brandon Ingram has scored 20+ points in each of his last seven home appearances against the Cavs.
• The home team has won the first quarter in each of the last six playoff games between the Cavs and Raptors.
• 2025-26 records:

Cavs: 54-30 straight up, 34-49-1 ATS; Raptors: 46-38 straight up, 43-41 ATS

Over/Under:

Cavs: 41-43; Raptors: 33-50-1

Keys to Cavs vs. Raptors matchup

Cleveland Cavaliers

Maintain the Harden-Mitchell Connection:
The mid-season acquisition of James Harden has transformed this offense. In Game 2, Mitchell and Harden combined for 58 points. If they continue to exploit Toronto’s backcourt, the Cavs will be difficult to stop.

Interior Dominance:
The duo of Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen has neutralized Toronto’s “positionless” lineups. By protecting the rim and winning the rebounding battle, the Cavs can prevent the Raptors from getting the easy second-chance points.

Feed the “Special” Energy:
Rookie Jaylon Tyson has been a spark plug off the bench. With the added motivation of his brother Jordyn being selected in tonight’s NFL Draft, expect Tyson to provide high-energy minutes.

Toronto Raptors

Unlock Brandon Ingram:
After a disappointing Game 2 performance. The Raptors desperately need Ingram to play like the All-Star he is. He must find his midrange rhythm early to keep the Cavs’ defense from collapsing entirely on Scottie Barnes.

Take Care of the Rock:
22 turnovers in Game 2 was the nail in the coffin for Toronto. Facing a disciplined Cleveland team, the Raptors must prioritize ball security. This will prevent Harden from orchestrating fast-break opportunities.

The “Jurassic Park” Factor:
The Raptors were 21-20 ATS at home this past regular season. They traditionally play with much higher intensity in Toronto. Toronto needs to use the crowd energy to fuel a defensive effort that can disrupt the Cavs’ perimeter shooting. They struggled (under 35 percent) despite the Game 2 win.

Cavs vs. Raptors prediction and pick

Sure, the Raptors will likely put up their most spirited fight of the series in front of their home fans. However, the talent gap created by the Harden-Mitchell backcourt is proving too wide to bridge. That’s especially with Immanuel Quickley’s status in doubt. Cleveland’s interior defense is built to withstand Toronto’s length. Their poise on the road has been a hallmark of their late-season surge.

Expect a close, defensive battle that stays under the total. The Cavs, though, have too much firepower in the closing minutes.

Final Score Prediction: Cavs 112, Raptors 106
Spread: Cavs -3.5
Over/Under: Under 221.5

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