Blazers vs. Spurs 2026 NBA Playoffs Game 1 prediction, odds, pick

The 2026 NBA Playoffs continue in the Western Conference as we’re back to bring you another betting prediction and pick for this Game 1 tilt. The 7-seeded Portland Trail Blazers visit the No. 2 San Antonio Spurs in what should be a fun First Round series. Check our NBA odds series for the Blazers-Spurs prediction and pick.

The Portland Trail Blazers defeated the Phoenix Suns 114-110 to advance through the Play-In Tournament. They advance to their first NBA Playoffs following a five-year drought, but they’ll have the tall task of facing the NBA’s hottest team as the likely underdogs throughout this entire series.

The San Antonio Spurs secured the West’s second-seed after winning 30 of their final 35 games of the regular season. Shattering expectations far earlier than expected, they’ll look to replicate recent success over Portland and continue their special season.

NBA odds courtesy of DraftKings

Blazers vs. Spurs Game 1 Odds

Portland Trail Blazers: +11.5 (-112)

San Antonio Spurs: -11.5 (-108)

Over: 221.5 (-110)

Under: 221.5 (-110)

Blazers vs. Spurs Key Injuries 

Portland: Damian Lillard (achilles – OUT)

San Antonio: Jordan McLaughlin (ankle – OUT)

Blazers vs. Spurs Betting Trends

• The San Antonio Spurs are 32-8 at home. The Portland Trail Blazers are 19-23 on the road.
• The Spurs are 50-14 as betting favorites. The Blazers are 15-31 as underdogs.
• The Spurs are 47-36 ATS overall, 23-17 ATS at home. The Blazers are 45-37-1 ATS overall, 20-21-1 ATS on the road.
• The Spurs are 7-3 outright, 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games against the Blazers.
• The Blazers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games.
• The Spurs are 4-2 ATS in their last six games.
• The total has gone UNDER in six of Portland’s last eight games.
• The Spurs are 16-2 in their last 18 home games.
• The total has gone UNDER in four of the last five games between the Blazers and the Spurs.

Keys to Blazers vs. Spurs Matchup

The San Antonio Spurs went 2-1 against the Portland Trail Blazers this season, dropping one game without Victor Wembanyama while Deni Avdija posted one his better stat lines of the season with a 29p/11r/10a triple-double. Avdija replicated a similarly dominant performance against the Suns during their play-in tilt, posting 41 points, 12 rebounds, and seven assists en route to carrying his team the entire game. He’s averaging a stellar 31.7 PPG in three meetings against the third-overall ranked team in defensive net rating (110.4), so expect him to have another big showing while he’s got the hot hand on the road.

However, the Spurs have been hungry for this moment all season and Victor Wembanyama has built a new intensified culture within the Spurs fan base. The crowd support should be palpable and we should expect Wembanyama’s most important contributions to come on the defensive end of the floor. His ability to guard the paint from all angles while covering multiple players at once has changed the game for the Spurs defensively, giving them a chance against any offense in the NBA.

Furthermore, Stephon Castle quietly posted an All-NBA defensive-caliber season and I expect this First Round to be a sort of coming out party as he establishes himself as a top two-way player in the NBA. De’Aaron Fox has also been very efficient on defense this season, so the guard pairing should be able to keep Deni Avdija contained for the most part with Wembanyama providing support around the painted area.

Still, the Blazers have been known to be a streaky team all season and could mount scoring runs throughout this game to keep the Spurs on their heels. Watch for the consistent output from Jrue Holiday and rookie center Donovan Clingan (11.6 RPG, 3rd NBA) will be in for a massive series going up against one of the best big men in the game.

Blazers vs. Spurs Prediction and Pick

While the Portland Trail Blazers have been hot entering this series, it’s likely the San Antonio Spurs will be favored throughout each contest unless we see any surprises here early. Deni Avdija has been one of the hottest players in the NBA up through the play-in tournament, so expect Portland to heavily lean on him throughout this one in keeping them out of scoring droughts.

However, San Antonio is primed to begin their playoff run and I don’t see them losing this home playoff opener with the type of crowd support they’ve built over the season. Expect Victor Wembanyama to have a massive impact on defense, per usual, as the Spurs should be able to pull away during the second half of this game. Let’s roll with their spread as they keep Portland under 100 in this game.

Final Blazers-Spurs Prediction & Pick:  San Antonio Spurs -11.5 (-108); UNDER 221.5 (-110)

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