Best fits for Tatsuya Imai, Kazuma Okamoto and Munetaka Murakami

Every year we see a new wave of talent come over from Japan to Major League Baseball. This year is no different, with three standout players posted and available to sign with major league clubs. In many ways, the 2020’s are a golden age for Japanese baseball. Between their WBC triumph in 2023 and the success of the Dodgers Japanese core, there has been a lot of success.

The three big names in this cycle are Tatsuya Imai, Munetaka Murakami and Kazuma Okamoto. We will break down these three players profiles, discuss team fits, contract projections and rank them.

Tatsuya Imai – RHP

Over the last few years, we have seen several Japanese pitchers have seamless transitions to the MLB. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Kodai Senga and Shota Imanaga are just a few examples. Tatsuya Imai is the next man up. The 27-year old posted a sub-2 ERA in the NPB last season, while showcasing a dynamic pitch mix.

Many outsiders may think that a player like this is destined to join the Dodgers like so many Japanese players before him. However, Imai has made it clear that is not in his plans. He recently said in an interview that he wants to take down the Dodgers rather than join them. That competitive spirit will make him beloved by the fanbase that signs him.

From a pitch mix perspective, there is a lot to like about Imai. His bread and butter pitch is his 4-seam fastball, which he threw nearly 50% of the time. The pitch averages 94.8 MPH which may not jump out at anyone. However, Imai’s fastball is special due to his low release height. He releases the ball from about 5 feet off the ground, which is much lower than the 5.8 foot MLB average. This gives his heater deception that makes it a nightmare for hitters to handle.

Evaluators have compared his fastball to the likes of Luis Castillo and Joe Ryan. Both of those guys also have low slot fastballs that give hitters fits. In fact, Castillo and Ryan both ranked in the top 20 for fastball run value. Imai should have a good fastball, which gives him a strong foundation. There is some debate about how the shape will translate with the different MLB ball.

His primary secondary pitch is a slider that he throws a third of the time. It generated a 46% whiff rate in the NPB. This is a weird slider though. Unlike most sliders, it does not move glove side. It is what some would call a “wrong way slider”. These are rare, but not unheard of. Dauri Moreta and Trey Yesavage are a couple guys who have these gloveside sliders.

Imai also has a few different changeup/splitter shapes. According to the NPB data, he throws a changeup, a splitter and a vulcan change. These combine for about 16% of his pitches. They all get whiffs and are strong offerings. He also throws plenty of strikes, which makes him a very attractive pitcher. Imai is one of the best pitchers on the free agent market and will be paid like it.

Contract Projection: 7-years $175 million

Team Fits: Mets, Yankees, Giants, Cubs, Orioles

Kazuma Okamoto – 3B/1B

Kazuma Okamoto, who turns 30 in late June, is a plug and play option. With a well rounded offensive profile, there is little doubt about his game translating to MLB.

In 11 NPB seasons, Okamoto has hit 248 home runs and has posted an .882 OPS. From 2018 to 2024, he has hit at least 27 homers every season. This season he was on pace to do the same but missed time due to injury. He also makes plenty of contact, striking out less than 20% of the time every season since 2020. Lance Brozdowski projected him to be a Gleyber Torres level offensive producer in the MLB.

On defense, Okamoto can play a solid third base, but his lack of athleticism holds him back a bit. He has also shown the ability to play very good defense at first base and even has experience in the corner outfield. That versatility is a feather in his cap.

At 29, he will not be getting that $100 million deal, so his market will be vast. With a profile like this and a reasonable price tag, half of the league could be in on Okamoto. Expect him to be a very popular name at the Winter Meetings that could sign in the next week or so. All of these players have posting related deadlines, so they will all be off the board by early January.

Contract Projection: 4-Years $65 Million

Team Fits: Red Sox, Pirates, Mets, Diamondbacks, Mariners, Angels

Munetaka Murakami – 1B/3B

Munetaka Murakami is the most famous Japanese free agent of this cycle. He emerged as the next power hitting phenom in Japan back in 2019 when he hit 36 NPB home runs as a 19-year old.

Things continued to escalate over the next few years. Murakami had an historic season back in 2022 when he smashed 56 homers and posted a 1.168 OPS. However, he has not been that same player in the past few years. He continues to show off his light tower power, but the swing and miss concerns are piling up. 

As well as being the NPB home run king, he is also the strikeout king. In each of his last two full seasons Murakami has led the NPB in strikeouts. He has struck out over 28% of the time in each of the last three NPB seasons as well. With MLB pitching being much better, there are real question marks about how much contact he will make.

Many teams are going to be terrified to give Murakami a $100 million deal, if he gets that much at all. However, the 26-year old has plus-plus raw power. There are plenty of examples of players who swing and miss a lot being great hitters because of their power.

A perfect example of that is A’s rookie sensation Nick Kurtz. He struck out over 30% of the time and his whiff% was in the first percentile. A’s fans probably don’t care too much about that because Kurtz absolutely raked and posted an OPS over 1.000. Murakami has the power and patience to be that kind of elite bat. However, there is a ton of risk in his profile.

The value is going to have to come from the bat because Murakami is limited defensively. He plays third base in Japan, but is not very good at it. The slugger will have to move to either 1st base or maybe even DH. This is a huge boom or bust player, but he has the potential to be a premier slugger.

Contract Projection: 5-years $95 Million

Team Fits: Phillies, Orioles, Mets, Dodgers, Red Sox, Padres, Angels