American League contenders ranked by World Series chances

The 2026 American League pennant race is a lot like a drunk cousin at Thanksgiving. Fun for a while as long as the cranberry sauce stays off the floor, we might even get a good story or two, but… how is this actually going to end? 

By my calculations, there are five teams that could currently win the American League but only about 2.5 that could win the World Series. Several preseason contenders (looking at you Boston Red Sox) have just had the worst time, and even the ones that aren’t 14.5 games back in their division before July 4 have to figure out pretty quickly if this is a “we can fix this” year or a “we can fix this next year” year (looking at you Houston Astros). Everyone is scrambling so much we should make some eggs.

With that said, MLB still needs someone to come out of the AL and lose to the Los Angeles Dodgers in the World Series, so we may as well get to work on cleaning up the cranberry sauce off the hardwood. It’s a Top Five and man, did I struggle to get to five — heck, there are only five teams with a winning record; it’s late-June!

5. Cleveland Guardians 

Made Up Award: The “I’m only here for the free Mimosas” Award for team that’s just happy they made the list

“Hey, wait, we are four games above .500 what is this?” Listen, Guardians, you’re lucky you even made this list. The Texas Rangers are sitting in the wing ready to come on stage and take this award if you don’t hush up and just be happy about this. 

Cleveland has not gotten nearly enough press for being a complete analytical fraud when teams like the Rays and St. Louis Cardinals distract the masses. Cleveland scores fewer than four runs per game (only the Red Sox and Padres are worse), has a negative run differential despite leading their division. The AL Central has been putting up hilarious season after hilarious season since I was in high school.

You may ask why the Chicago White Sox, one of the fun stories of the season and a legit threat to pass Cleveland in this division, did not make the cut over such a lame division leader, but I just don’t know if I can trust the pitching long term. As silly as the Guardians are offensively, their pitching has been solidly better than the White Sox all year, and pitching projects. Cleveland probably isn’t this bad at hitting, and even if they are, they’ve limited scoring to the point where I can reasonably bank of them for the division. That, by default, puts them in the fifth-best spot. God, what a mess.

4. Toronto Blue Jays

Made Up Award: The Two-outs away from winning the World Series Award for 2026 hangover

From the first All-Star voting returns, you’d think that the Blue Jays were on 116-win pace. Imagine my surprise when I learned they not only had a losing record, but probably should be even worse than they are. Coming off the crushing World Series loss, the Blue Jays have had nothing offensively, cratering from over five to just over four runs per game from 2025 to 2026. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is having a notable down year, and it’s no longer too early to worry about.

Pitching has been alright, and Dylan Cease looks like he was worth the cash the Jays shelled out to bring him in. But guys we’re four teams in, this is our third AL East team and they aren’t even above .500. That’s the energy we’re bringing to this World Series revenge tour. That is not the energy you want in that situation.

3. Tampa Bay Rays

Made Up Award: The Metaphysics Award for the team that is not good on paper but is fourth by default

I wrote many more words than should be allowed about how MLB’s bunting boom was a Tampa Bay Rays-filled load of nothing, and their offensive cool down has shown just such a situation. They have basically been middle of the road since that piece came out, 14-16 in their last 30 — good enough to still be number three on this list but not good enough for me to take their high-contact approach seriously. 

The Rays being twelve games over .500 with a run differential of only eight doesn’t just suggest they’re a total mirage, it ruthlessly demands it. I wanted, with every fiber of my spiritual and corporeal being, to put the Toronto Blue Jays above the Rays here just to further cement the anti-bunt agenda, but I simply could not do it. The math would not math.

2. Seattle Mariners

Made Up Award: The “I don’t even know that guy” Award for distancing themselves from the Red Sox and Astros 

There was a real chance that Boston, Houston and Seattle could make up a true Axis of Meh after all three got off to abysmal starts. Credit to the Mariners, though, for turning things around while their friends continued down the path to the dark side. The Astros are actually not all that far back from the Mariners, but if we’re just talking trend lines? The Mariners are your dark horse AL team. Yes, we have a “dark horse” at number two on the list. I never said this would be a chill experience.

The Mariners started out the season essentially unable to hit but with elite pitching. That’s still … basically the case, though the offense has naturally stabilized behind better performances from Julio Rodriguez and have now brought back a hopefully healthy Cal Raleigh. The latter will need to start producing some power again if the Mariners want to bring this team to October, but the theory that starting pitching = gravy when the leaves start falling mostly works for me. 

1. New York Yankees

Made Up Award: The Statcast Nerd Award for the only AL team that is actually good on paper

There are three, yes three, teams in the American League with a Pythagorean win expectation over .500, and two of them (the next two teams on the list) are barely scraping above the line. The Yankess, though, are actually underperforming: at 46-30, both FanGraphs projection models have them between three and four wins better than they actually are. In this econom—er, American League?!

There is, frankly, no possible argument for any other team to be the favorite in the AL right now beyond certain amorphous Yankees curse logistics that I wouldn’t personally take too much stock in. They have the underlying qualities of a good team, and have managed to produce enough of a cushion for themselves that Aaron Judge’s injury timetable shouldn’t be of too much concern. 

I am a believer in the long-term projection value of contact quality, and the Yankees are a contact quality machine. In an American League full of teams trying to cheat death by bunting a lot, this is where I’d invest my beans.