3 Lightning-Canadiens bold predictions for 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs

The Tampa Bay Lightning and Montreal Canadiens are locked into a first-round playoff series after the Buffalo Sabres clinched the Atlantic Division. A rematch of the 2021 Stanley Cup Final, the home team has not been decided yet. Before the Canadiens and Lightning square off in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, we have the bold predictions ready to roll.

The Habs and Bolts split their four-game regular season series. Tampa Bay won the first two matchups, picking up a 6-1 road win in early December and a shootout win at home after Christmas. Montreal has won the last two, picking up a 4-1 road win on March 31 and a 2-1 home win on April 6. They are even on paper, but someone has to go to the second round.

The Lightning are trying to rekindle the magic from their consecutive Stanley Cup Final wins. The Canadiens are trying to win their first playoff series since that 2021 run. How will this first-round series pan out?

Cole Caufield will lead the Canadiens in goals and points

Last year, the Canadiens broke a three-year playoff drought on the backs of a youth revolution. But those players have taken a step forward this year, making them true contenders. Chief among those is Cole Caufield, who clinched his first 50-goal season against the Lightning on Thursday. He will continue to dominate, leading the Canadiens in scoring in this series.

Caufield was snubbed from the U.S. Olympic team, but took that as a way to rest up for the second half. He has scored 19 goals in 23 games since the break, including nine on the eight-game winning streak that locked down Montreal’s spot. Nick Suzuki has 100 points, Juraj Slavkofsky made a leap this year, but it will be all Mr. Saturday Night in the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Caufield has been leading the Canadiens offensively all year long, and that will keep up in the postseason.

Brayden Point roars back to his old self for the Lightning

On the Lightning’s path to consecutive championships and three straight Stanley Cup Final appearances, Brayden Point became a star. He led the team with 14 goals in 2020 and 2021, both of which ended in a championship. He got hurt in the bubble and was in and out of the lineup. The only two games the New York Islanders won in the Conference Final that year were when Point was out. When he was in, they did not lose. That is the Point the Lightning need against the Canadiens.

Point has played 25 playoff games since the 2021 Stanley Cup Final, scoring eight goals and adding eight assists. Those are solid numbers, but the greatness of those two COVID-year runs stand out as brilliant postseason runs that he has not recreated. Everyone will be focused on Nikita Kucherov, which should leave the door open for Point to score plenty.

Point will get back to his past self, scoring seven points in the series against the Canadiens.

The Lightning will beat the Canadiens in six games

The goal scorers get the attention, but the goaltending matchup swings this series in the Lightning’s direction. Andrei Vasilevskiy put together another Vezina Trophy-caliber season, leading the league with 39 wins with Tampa Bay. The Canadiens may go with 21-year-old Jacob Fowler in Game 1 after Samuel Montembeault lost his starting role. Caufield, Suzuki, and Slavkofsky may be great, but Vasilevskiy can stand taller.

The Canadiens are building something special after a long rebuild. A playoff loss should not lead to any massive trades to change the core or the firing of Martin St Louis. Noah Dobson’s injury is something to monitor heading into the set, as he suffered an upper-body injury just before the end of the season.

The Lightning have not won a playoff series since the 2022 Eastern Conference Final. But this year, the mighty Florida Panthers are sitting at home, which opens the path for Tampa Bay to get back to the Stanley Cup Final. If they win this series, it could be a matchup with the playoff-hungry Buffalo Sabres or a surprising Wild Card team.

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