2026 Six Nations Championship Week 4 predictions, odds and betting tips

It’s the penultimate weekend of the 2026 Six Nations Championship, and the highlight is a potential championship decider in Edinburgh. 

It will surprise absolutely no one that the French are involved in that clash. 

Ahead of the championship, they were the favourites and nothing has happened in the first three rounds to change that assessment.

But Scotland’s campaign had been typically mercurial. They lost their opening encounter in Rome, revived themselves (yet again) against the English, and then just about sneaked past the Welsh. 

If they can pull off a shock on Saturday, Scotland will head into the final weekend on the brink of an outrageous heist.

Before then, Ireland welcomes Wales to Dublin and then the action closes with a wounded England travelling to Italy.

We enjoyed a hat trick of winning bets in week three – let’s hope for more of the same this week!

Quick Six Nations Week 4 betting tips

• Robert Baloucoune 2+ tries – 2/1 with talkSPORT BET
• Scotland to win on the handicap (+11.5 pts) – 5/6 with bet365
• Italy to win – 2/1 with BoyleSports

Six Nations tournament odds

• France 1/20
• Scotland 19/1
• Ireland 31/1
• England 289/1
• Italy 289/1

Here are the updated tournament odds from SBK.

In theory, Ireland are not out of this battle, but they have just one bonus point compared to the three that France and Scotland have claimed.

That makes their quest for the title all the more difficult. Scotland needs to defeat the French and then close out with a Super Saturday visit to Dublin. It’s a tough task. France will close out the championship with a battle against England in Paris.

Ireland v Wales

Wales were unlucky against Scotland but also guilty of naivety when gifting the Scottish a try straight from a kick-off late in the game. It’s the kind of error that occurs when a team is persistently under the cosh, but this inexperienced team has definitely improved with every game. But can they take the next step?

The Irish, in contrast, are in high spirits. The injury-ravaged squad was getting stick after recent performances, but the thrashing of England has righted the ship.

Ireland v Wales odds

• Ireland: 1/33
• Draw: 25/1
• Wales: 12/1

Here are the latest match odds for Ireland v Wales from Betfred.

Robert Baloucoune 2+ tries at 2/1 with talkSPORT BET

Ireland has won eight of the last 10 matches between these two sides, and Wales hasn’t returned from Dublin with a Six Nations win since 2012. Those stats tell us what we know: Wales are up against it. Again.

The Irish threat was reawakened last week and Robert Baloucoune can ride that wave. He’s started against Italy and Wales this championship and is a huge threat to Wales (literally and metaphorically).

Scotland v France

It is entirely in keeping with Gregor Townsend’s reign that Scotland rose magnificently to the task of beating England, but when faced with Italy and Wales – the two weakest teams in the championship – they were somewhat fortunate to emerge with one win.

Remarkably, they remain in the hunt for the championship, but they must find that A game because the B game is way below elite standard. The French remain immense in the forwards and lethal among the backs.

Scotland v France odds

• Scotland: 7/2
• Draw: 20/1
• France: 1/5

Here are the latest match odds for Scotland v France from Sky Bet

Scotland (+11.5 pts) at 5/6 with bet365

This might be tighter than many expect. Scotland has won three of the last five games played in Edinburgh and France’s win in 2024 was tight (20-16). Moreover, three of the last four matches between the two teams played anywhere had no more than four points in it.

It’s tempting to take the double result with Scotland to lead at half-time and France to win the game. But we’ll keep it simple and take this handicap. It would have won in eight of the last 10 matches played between the two teams – and nine of the last 10 at Murrayfield.

Italy v England

England entered the championship in buoyant mood off a fine Autumn International schedule and got off to a bold start against the Welsh. Since then, they have imploded.

Steve Borthwick had turned to the veteran fly-half George Ford, and he initially marshalled the troops admirably. But sloppy errors from him contributed to the defeat against Scotland and the surrender to Ireland. Italy will be looking to capitalise on England’s hesitancy.

Italy v England odds

• Italy: 9/4
• Draw: 25/1
• England: 4/11

Here are the latest match odds for France v Italy from Ladbrokes.

Italy win at 2/1 with BoyleSports

Italy has never beaten England, but this might be their best chance yet. On England’s last visit to Rome, they just about held on for a 27-24 win and, if this contest stays tight, the English nerves will be considerable.

The visitors insist they are close to hitting full stride, citing that they rank second for 22m entries but only fifth for points scored in the 22 per entry. Coach Borthwick had turned to youth in the backs to revive spirits.

Will it work? The handicappers think there will be one converted try in it (7 points). If it’s that tight, the Italians will have all the incentive late on and England all the nerves. Italy can make history.

Best bookies to bet on the Six Nations Championship

Here are our top-rated rugby betting sites:

About the author

Matt Cooper

Matt Cooper has been a golf journalist for 15 years. He’s worked for, among others, Golf365, SkySports, ESPN, NBC, Sporting Life, Open.com and the Guardian. He specialises in feature writing, reporting and tournament analysis. He’s covered numerous Opens, Ryder Cups and Solheim Cups, and travelled to golfing destinations as varied as Kazakhstan, South Korea, Seychelles, Sri Lanka and Nepal.

Find Matt on Twitter @MattCooperGolf

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